中国农业气象2026，Vol.47Issue(9)：1388-1399,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.09.003
"双碳"背景下濮阳市农业碳排放脱钩分析与影响因素
Decoupling Analysis and Influence of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Puyang City under Dual Carbon Background
摘要
Abstract
Based on time-series data from the Puyang Statistical Yearbook,this study employed the carbon emission coefficient method to estimate agricultural carbon emissions in Puyang city over the past 13 years(2009-2021).The Tapio decoupling model was applied to analyze the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth,while the LMDI decomposition method was used to identify key driving factors,providing theoretical references for the development of green and low-carbon agriculture.The results showed that agricultural carbon emissions exhibited a fluctuating trend of"increase-decrease-increase-decrease,"with an annual average of 33.55×104t.Emissions peaked in 2018(43.70×104t)and declined to 30.23×104t by 2021(a 30.82%reduction from 2018).Carbon emission intensity showed a consistent downward trend from 2009 to 2016 followed by a temporary rebound during the 2017-2018 period.Subsequently,it continued to decline from 2018 to 2021,reaching the study-period minimum of 0.1078t·10-4yuan in 2021,reflecting significant progress in Puyang's agricultural low-carbon transformation.The emission structure was dominated by chemical fertilizers(73.51%),followed by agricultural plastic films(11.35%),diesel(5.88%)and pesticides(5.78%)and so on.The decoupling relationship evolved in stages:weak decoupling dominated in 2010-2014,followed by strong decoupling(2015-2016),negative decoupling(2017-2018)and a return to strong decoupling(2019-2021).LMDI decomposition revealed that agricultural production efficiency(33.78%),regional industrial structure(10.02%)and labor scale(3.15%)were the primary drivers of emission reduction,whereas regional economic growth(44.69%),urbanization(7.02%)and agricultural structure(1.34%)contributed to emission increases.Based on the research findings,it is recommended to promote low-carbon and high-quality agricultural development in Puyang city through technological innovation,structural optimization and enhancing the low-carbon production capacity of farmers.关键词
农业碳排放/Tapio脱钩/LMDI模型/濮阳市Key words
Agricultural carbon emissions/Tapio decoupling/LMDI model/Puyang city引用本文复制引用
刘晓帆,郭慧,赵婷婷,牛娜,刘娟,岳振国,李洁,刘海礁,张力,张静静,马盼盼,崔亚男,靳艳革.."双碳"背景下濮阳市农业碳排放脱钩分析与影响因素[J].中国农业气象,2026,47(9):1388-1399,12.基金项目
濮阳市重大科技专项项目(240210) （240210）
国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-13) （CARS-13）
河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)项目(242102111072) （科技攻关）
