中国农业气象2026，Vol.47Issue(9)：1473-1484,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.09.009
新疆棉花苗期和花铃期低温灾害特征及对棉花产量的影响
Cotton Yield in Response to Low Temperature Cold Damage during Seedling and Boll Stages in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
Based on daily temperature data from 1990 to 2019 in the Xinjiang cotton region and cotton yield data for each county(city,district),the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of cotton yield and low-temperature cold damage during the cotton growing season(including seedling stage and flowering-boll stage cold damage).The copula function was employed to assess the impact of low-temperature cold damage on cotton yield.This study aimed to reveal the historical evolution of both cotton yield and low-temperature cold damage,and to quantify the impact of low-temperature cold damage on the probability of yield reduction,helping cotton farmers mitigate production risks.The results showed that,from 1990 to 2019,cotton yield exhibited a highly significant increasing trend(P<0.01)in 86.3%of the Xinjiang region,with an average annual increase of 30.22 kg·ha-1.The high-value cotton production areas were mainly concentrated near the Tianshan mountains,while the yield stability showed a gradual increase from west to east.During the period from 1990 to 2019,significant changes in low-temperature cold damage occurred in the cotton-growing regions of Xinjiang.In 27.4%of the cotton-producing counties(districts and cities),the number of cumulative days of low-temperature stress during the seedling stage(LST)showed a highly significant decrease.Moreover,37.0%of the counties experienced a highly significant decreasing trend(P<0.01)in cumulative low-temperature stress days during the flowering-boll stage(LTB).As the cumulative number of LST days increased,the probability of cotton meteorological yield loss increased by 19.1 percentage points in southern Xinjiang and by 19.0 percentage points in northern Xinjiang.Similarly,as cumulative LTB days increased,the probability of yield reduction increased by 18.6 percentage points in southern Xinjiang and by 20.5 percentage points in northern Xinjiang.In conclusion,over the past 30 years,cotton yield in Xinjiang has significantly increased,the frequency of low-temperature cold damage has generally decreased,and as the duration of low-temperature cold damage increased,the probability of cotton yield reduction rose,with the impact being more significant in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang.关键词
气候变化/苗期低温/花铃期低温/气象产量/风险分析/新疆Key words
Climate change/Cold damage in seedling stage/Cold damage in flowering-boll stage/Meteorological yield/Risk analysis/Xinjiang引用本文复制引用
王雨菡,赵文琪,张要朋,王坤锋,王立志,王剑,王占彪,李存东,李鹏程,张正贵,潘占磊,李鑫,李军宏,孙桂兰,翟梦华..新疆棉花苗期和花铃期低温灾害特征及对棉花产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2026,47(9):1473-1484,12.基金项目
"天山人才"培养计划项目(2023TSYCCX0020) （2023TSYCCX0020）
庭州科技创新团队项目(2023CT09) （2023CT09）
乌昌石国家自主创新示范区科技发展计划项目(2023LQJ03) （2023LQJ03）
