中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）2026，Vol.24Issue(5)：636-647,12.DOI:10.3724/j.jiwhr.20250284
2000-2023年我国粮食生产力时空演变及驱动因素分析
Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of grain productivity in China from 2000 to 2023
摘要
Abstract
Ensuring food security is crucial for social stability.To optimize the spatial layout of grain production and strengthen national food security,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal differentiation and driving mechanism of China's grain productivity from 2000 to 2023.Multi-scale research was conducted based on grain productivity data at the national and municipal levels in China from 2000 to 2023.The Hodrick-Prescott(H-P)filtering method was used to analyze the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations of grain yield;meanwhile,the Spatial Moran's I was employed to explore the spatial agglomeration characteristics of grain yield per unit area,and the principal compo-nent regression method was applied to effectively identify the driving mechanism of China's grain productivity.The results showed that:(1)In terms of temporal characteristics,the national grain unit yield showed a steady upward trend with inter-annual fluctuations gradually mitigating.After 2016,it entered a stable development stage character-ized by slower growth and steady improvement.;(2)Regarding spatial correlation,the national grain unit yield exhib-ited a significant positive spatial correlation overall.The global Moran's I fluctuated between 0.40 and 0.64,showing a"decrease followed by an increase"trend,which reflects the dynamic adjustment characteristics of the spatial agglomeration pattern.;(3)In terms of spatial differentiation,the grain unit yield was lower in the area along the Hu Huanyong Line.High-high clustering regions were concentrated in the eastern plains,while low-low clustering regions were mainly located in the arid and semi-arid regions of the central and western areas;(4)North-south com-parison reveals a continuous increase in grain production capacity in the north and a relative weakening in the south,showing a pattern of"increasing in the north and decreasing in the south"with a northward shift of the grain produc-tion center;(5)Regarding driving factors,irrigation water consumption was the primary factor driving grain produc-tivity,with an influence coefficient of 0.95,contributing the most to capacity improvement.The spatial pattern of grain production in China exhibits a stable characteristic of"high in the east and low in the west,increasing in the north and decreasing in the south"with significant spatial agglomeration effects.In the future,focus should be placed on consolidating capacity and improving quality and efficiency in main production areas.Meanwhile,the layout opti-mization of north-south regions should be considered.Addressing the water resource constraints in the western region by promoting water-saving irrigation technologies and models is essential to take multiple measures to drive the con-tinuous improvement of national grain productivity.关键词
粮食生产力/时空演变/空间集聚/灌溉用水/粮食安全Key words
food productivity/spatio-temporal evolution/spatial agglomeration/irrigation water/food security分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郭宇,徐凯,杨开静,雷波,张友良,杨彬..2000-2023年我国粮食生产力时空演变及驱动因素分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）,2026,24(5):636-647,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52479054) （52479054）
中国水科院科技成果转化基金专项(ID121003A0062025) （ID121003A0062025）
中国水科院基本科研业务费专项项目(ID110145B0032025) （ID110145B0032025）
