中国癌症防治杂志2026，Vol.18Issue(4)：409-416,8.DOI:10.27054/j.cnki.ISSN.1674-5671.2026.04.03
2018-2023年四川省遂宁市前列腺癌发病和死亡趋势分析及2024-2028年变化预测
Trends in incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Suining City,Sichuan Province,2018 to 2023 and prediction for 2024 to 2028
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of prostate cancer in Suining City,Sichuan Province,from 2018 to 2023,and to project the incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2028.Methods Data on incident cases and deaths of prostate cancer from 2018 to 2023 of Suining City were collected from the China Cancer Registry Platform.Crude incidence/mortality rates,age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by the Chinese standard population(ASIRC/ASMRC),and age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by the world standard population(ASIRW/ASMRW)were then calculated separately by age group and area.Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)for trend analysis.A grey prediction model GM(1,1)was applied to predict the incidence and mortality trends from 2024 to 2028.Results From 2018 to 2023,the crude incidence rate,ASIRC,and ASIRW of prostate cancer in Suining City were 11.15/105,4.84/105,and 4.65/105,respectively,and the corresponding crude mortality rate,ASMRC,and ASMRW were 4.35/105,1.75/105,and 1.73/105,respectively.During this period,both incidence and mortality showed upward trends.The AAPCs for crude incidence rate,ASIRC,and ASIRW were 13.70%,8.33%,and 8.67%,respectively,while those for crude mortality rate,ASMRC,and ASMRW were 23.44%,16.40%,and 17.28%,respectively.Incidence and mortality in rural areas were lower than in urban areas but increased at a faster pace.Both incidence and mortality rates rose sharply after 55 years of age,peaking in the 80-84 and 85+age groups,respectively.Projections from the GM(1,1)model indicated that the incidence and mortality rates in Suining City would continue to rise from 2024 to 2028,with the incidence in rural areas expected to surpass that in urban areas in 2025.Conclusions The disease burden of prostate cancer in Suining City has shown a sustained upward trend,with middle-aged and elderly residents being the priority population for prevention and control.Although incidence and mortality in rural areas remain lower than in urban areas,the crude incidence in rural areas may surpass that in urban areas by 2025.It is necessary to strengthen prostate cancer screening among middle-aged and elderly residents and improve the rural prevention and control system to address the increasing disease burden.关键词
前列腺癌/发病率/死亡率/趋势分析/灰色预测模型Key words
Prostate cancer/Incidence/Mortality/Trend analysis/Grey prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张松,梁玉君,杜恒,康永明,杨继红,卢婷,危婷,朱小凤..2018-2023年四川省遂宁市前列腺癌发病和死亡趋势分析及2024-2028年变化预测[J].中国癌症防治杂志,2026,18(4):409-416,8.基金项目
国科健康医疗大数据遂宁研究中心科研课题(GKD2025001) （GKD2025001）
