中国癌症防治杂志2026，Vol.18Issue(4)：417-426,10.DOI:10.27054/j.cnki.ISSN.1674-5671.2026.04.04
1990-2023年中国结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势及2024-2035年预测分析
Analysis of trends in the burden of colorectal cancer in China from 1990 to 2023,and projections for 2024 to 2035
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the current status and temporal trends of the burden of colorectal cancer(CRC)in China from 1990 to 2023,and to project the disease burden from 2024 to 2035.Methods Data on prevalent cases,deaths,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)of CRC in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 database.Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)to assess temporal trends in disease burden from 1990 to 2023.DALY decomposition analy-sis was performed to assess the components of the disease burden.A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to project CRC burden from 2024 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2023,the number of deaths from CRC in China increased from 133,600 to 257,500,the number of prevalent cases rose from 755,400 to 3,375,700,and DALYs increased from 4.073,8 million person-years to 6.266,8 million person-years.The ASPR showed an increasing trend(AAPC=1.80%,P<0.001),whereas the ASMR and ASDR showed decreasing trends(AAPC=-0.99%,P=0.010;AAPC=-1.22%,P<0.001,respectively).Sex-and age-specific differences in CRC burden were ob-served.Males generally had higher burdens than females.Decomposition of DALYs showed that loss due to premature death was the major source of disease burden.The BAPC model projected that from 2024 to 2035,ASPR would increase in both males and females,while ASMR and ASDR would decrease in males but increase in females.Conclusions From 1990 to 2023,the absolute burden of CRC in China continued to increase,with a higher burden among males and older adults.Future prevention and control efforts should continue to focus on males and older adults with a high burden,while paying attention to potential changes in the burden of mortality and healthy life lost among females.关键词
结直肠癌/中国/全球疾病负担数据库/预测Key words
Colorectal cancer/China/Global Burden of Disease database/Projection分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
梁孜,李瑞雪,刘天琦,赵紫楠,徐文峰,金鹏飞..1990-2023年中国结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势及2024-2035年预测分析[J].中国癌症防治杂志,2026,18(4):417-426,10.基金项目
国家卫生健康委员会医药科技卫生发展研究中心课题(WKZX2023CX210007) （WKZX2023CX210007）
