摘要
Abstract
Cicadella viridis is an important agricultural and forestry pest with a broad damage range and diverse host plants,posing a serious threat to fruit production,grain crops,and vegetable cultivation in China.To clarify its current pattern of potential suitable habitat and its response trends under future climate change,this study used data from 73 valid occurrence records and 19 climatic environmental variables and,with the MaxEnt model in combination with ArcGIS,projected the suitable habitat distribution of C.viridis in China for the present and for future periods(from 2021 to 2040,and from 2041 to 2060)under two climate scenarios(RCP2.6 and RCP8.5),identifying the key climatic factors influencing its distribution.Results indicate:Annual Mean Temperature(bio1;contribution rate 33.6％),Precipitation of Coldest Quarter(bio19;contribution rate 25.9％),and Temperature Seasonality(bio4;contribution rate 17.1％)were the key climatic factors shaping the distribution of C.viridis.Under current climatic conditions,the total suitable habitat area reached 534.51×104 km2,accounting for 56.87％of China's total area.Highly suitable areas are concentrated across the entirety of Shaanxi and Ningxia,as well as in eastern Henan,western Shandong,western Hebei,and other northern regions.Under different future climate scenarios,the suitable habitat area showed a continuous increasing trend,with the largest expansion under the RCP2.6 scenario in the 2050s(40.82×104 km2).These findings provide a scientific basis for precision monitoring and early warning,zonal prevention and control,and the development of long-term management strategies for C.viridis.关键词
大青叶蝉/MaxEnt模型/适生区/气候变化/气候因子/综合防控Key words
Cicadella viridis/MaxEnt model/suitable habitat/climate change/climatic factor/comprehensive control分类
农业科技
