水力发电2026，Vol.52Issue(10)：20-27,8.
永定河流域小清河分洪区洪水模拟与风险区划研究
Flood Simulation and Risk Zoning of Xiaoqing River Flood Diversion Area in Yongding River Basin
摘要
Abstract
In the context of escalating global extreme precipitation and flood events,flood mitigation strategies are transitioning from a"flood control"paradigm to one of"flood management".Given the pivotal role of flood storage and detention areas in defense systems,assessing their risks and zoning is crucial for disaster mitigation and sustainable development.Taking the Xiaoqing River Flood Diversion Area(Beijing section)of Yongding River Basin as the study area,a coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model is developed to simulate flood evolution across various return periods(50-year,100-year,200-year and 500-year events).A comprehensive risk evaluation system is established by integrating hazard indicators(simulated inundation depth and maximum flow velocity)with vulnerability indicators(population and GDP density),using a combined weighting approach based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the Entropy Weight Method.Spatial risk zoning is subsequently performed using GIS.Results demonstrate that the model performs well in simulating runoff at major control sections,with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)values exceeding 0.88,peak discharge errors below 6%,and peak timing errors within one hour.Simulation results show that the diversion area absorbs 15.45%,26.15%and 31.28%of upstream flood volumes under 100-year,200-year and 500-year return periods,respectively.Risk mapping identifies high-risk areas predominantly downstream of the diversion sluice,along river banks and in low-lying terrain.These insights offer a robust scientific basis for optimizing flood dispatch strategies and regional planning within the Yongding River Basin.关键词
蓄滞洪区/洪水综合风险评估/水动力模型/洪水演进模拟/永定河流域Key words
flood storage and detention area/comprehensive flood risk assessment/hydrodynamic model/flood evolution simulation/Yongding River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
田伟,张奎忠,王一淼,陈超恒,王韵文,谷黄河,李一平..永定河流域小清河分洪区洪水模拟与风险区划研究[J].水力发电,2026,52(10):20-27,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42271020) （42271020）
河北省省级水利科技计划项目(2025-84(GC)) （2025-84(GC）
