水力发电2026，Vol.52Issue(10)：98-105,8.
基于分布式光纤和贝叶斯模型平均的土石坝土体含水率监测方法研究
Soil Moisture Content Monitoring Method of Earth-rock Dam Based on Distributed Optical Fiber and Bayesian Model Averaging
摘要
Abstract
The Active Heating-Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry(AH-OFDR)technology provides an effective means for distributed high-spatial-resolution monitoring of soil volumetric moisture content.However,the accurate inversion of thermal response data remains the core challenge restricting its engineering applications.In this study,laboratory AH-OFDR monitoring experiments for soil volumetric moisture content are carried out to clarify the influence laws of various variables on temperature rise.Furthermore,a temperature-moisture content inversion model is constructed based on the Bayesian Model Averaging(BMA)theory,realizing adaptive weight fusion of multi-feature combinations.The experimental results show that:(a)the volumetric moisture content exhibits a significant negative correlation with temperature rise,while the heating power is positively proportional to temperature rise,and the fluctuations in initial temperature have no significant interference with the temperature rise index;and(b)the BMA model constructed in this study achieves a coefficient of determination R2 of 0.84 and a root mean square error(RMSE)of 3.45%for moisture content inversion,and the posterior inclusion probabilities of core variables(reciprocal of temperature rise per unit power,porosity)are close to 1.0,which can adapt to the thermal characteristic heterogeneity under different working conditions.This study can provide reliable methodological support for the distributed accurate inversion of moisture content in engineering scenarios such as seepage monitoring of earth-rock dams using AH-OFDR technology.关键词
土石坝/渗流监测/主动加热-光频域反射(AH-OFDR)/土体含水率/贝叶斯模型平均Key words
earth-rock dam/seepage monitoring/Active Heating-Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry(AH-OFDR)/soil moisture content/Bayesian Model Averaging分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
高峻骁,高文琦,鲁江涛,朱宝强,程琳..基于分布式光纤和贝叶斯模型平均的土石坝土体含水率监测方法研究[J].水力发电,2026,52(10):98-105,8.基金项目
贵州省科技重大专项(黔科合重大专项字[2024]008) （黔科合重大专项字[2024]008）
