眼科学报2026，Vol.41Issue(8)：623-633,11.DOI:10.12419/25112904
1990-2021年中国儿童群体中视网膜母细胞瘤疾病负担变化趋势分析
The disease burden of retinoblastoma among Chinese children and its temporal trends,1990-2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the disease burden and trends of retinoblastoma(RB)among children under 5 years of age in China from 1990 to 2021,and to provide evidence to inform public health strategies.Methods:Data on RB in Chinese children under 5 years of age from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study The disease burden was evaluated using incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rates.Joinpoint regression was used to assess temporal trends by calculating the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC).Stratified analyses were conducted to evaluate differences by sex and age.Spearman's rank correlation and locally weighted regression were applied to explore the association between the disease burden and the Socio-demographic Index(SDI).Results:Between 1990 and 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of RB in China showed an overall increasing trend(AAPC,2.87%),rising significantly before 2019 and declining thereafter,reaching 1.23(95%UI:0.47-1.96)per 100,000 in 2021.In contrast,the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)decreased consistently(AAPC:-4.02 and-3.72,respectively).The RB burden was higher in females than in males,and children aged 2-4 years accounted for the majority of the burden.Furthermore,the ASIR was positively correlated with the SDI,whereas the ASMR and ASDR were negatively correlated with SDI,indicating a significant impact of socioeconomic development on the RB burden.Conclusions:The rising incidence of RB in China may be associated with improvements in early diagnosis,while the decline in mortality likely reflects advancements in treatment.However,regional disparities in medical resource allocation remain a major challenge for future RB management.Strengthening primary healthcare capacity and promoting AI-assisted diagnosis are essential for achieving more equitable and efficient RB care.关键词
视网膜母细胞瘤/疾病负担/发病率/死亡率/伤残调整寿命年Key words
retinoblastoma/global burden of disease/incidence/mortality/disability-adjusted life year分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
李雯斐,司鸿宇,周慧璇,杨伟敏,肖伟..1990-2021年中国儿童群体中视网膜母细胞瘤疾病负担变化趋势分析[J].眼科学报,2026,41(8):623-633,11.基金项目
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2023A1515012192).This work was supported by the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515012192). （2023A1515012192）
