系统管理学报2026，Vol.35Issue(5)：1181-1194,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn2097-4558.2026.05.004
回收质量和需求不确定下考虑碳期货的工程机械再制造企业生产与碳减排决策
Production and Carbon Emission Reduction Decisions for Construction Machinery Remanufacturing Enterprises Considering Carbon Futures Under Uncertainty of Recycled Product Quality and Demand
摘要
Abstract
This paper investigates the optimization of production and carbon emission reduction investment decisions for carbon emission-dependent construction machinery remanufacturing enterprises under uncertainty in used product quality,considering carbon futures.Faced with uncertain market demand,decision optimization models were constructed for both scenarios both without carbon and with carbon futures.Through numerical simulations,the impacts of quality uncertainty,demand uncertainty,and carbon emission reduction investment on remanufacturing output and profit were analyzed.The results show that after the introduction of carbon futures,the optimal remanufacturing time threshold decreases,leading to an increase in the quantity of remanufactured products,while remanufacturers'profits increase at lower carbon emission levels.As product quality uncertainty increases,the optimal remanufacturing time threshold increases,the quantity of reclaimed used products decreases,and the optimal remanufacturing quantity increases,resulting in higher profits and total carbon emissions.As demand uncertainty increases,the optimal remanufacturing quantity shows an upward trend.The optimal profit in the carbon futures scenario is consistently higher than that in the non-carbon futures scenario,indicating that carbon futures can effectively mitigate risks caused by market demand fluctuations.As the carbon emission reduction investment coefficient increases,both the optimal carbon emission reduction quantity and the remanufacturing enterprise's optimal profit decrease.In the carbon futures scenario,the optimal carbon emission reduction quantity is positively correlated with both the futures price and the carbon allowance trading price specified in the carbon futures contract.This paper provides theoretical support and practical guidance for construction machinery remanufacturing companies to optimize production and carbon emission reduction decisions under uncertainty,thereby effectively addressing uncertainties in recycled product quality and market demand.The findings are of practical significance for achieving the China's"dual carbon"goals.关键词
质量不确定/再制造/碳期货/碳减排决策Key words
quality uncertainty/remanufacturing/carbon futures/carbon reduction decision分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈伟达,秦琳,何文琪..回收质量和需求不确定下考虑碳期货的工程机械再制造企业生产与碳减排决策[J].系统管理学报,2026,35(5):1181-1194,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(24FGLB143) （24FGLB143）
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2024SJZD038) （2024SJZD038）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71971058) （71971058）
江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX23_0335) （KYCX23_0335）
