北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(4)：417-428,12.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2026041
基于copula函数的新能源枯竭风险分析
Risk analysis of new energy depletion based on copula functions
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily output data of wind power and solar power in winter from 2018 to 2023 in a certain region,this paper constructs a two-dimensional joint probability model of wind-solar power by selecting the optimal marginal distribution and copula functions.On this basis,the combined risk level of new energy depletion in different regions is quantitatively evaluated,and the joint and co-occurence return periods of depletion events are calculated.The experimental results indicate that the optimal marginal distributions and copula functions of wind and solar power vary significantly across different regions.The probability and frequency of individual depletion of wind power or solar power in each region are relatively high.In contrast,the probability of extreme coupling events with simultaneous depletion of both energy sources is lower,accompanied by a significantly lower occurrence frequency.关键词
新能源枯竭/copula函数/边缘分布/再现期/枯竭风险Key words
new energy depletion/copula function/marginal distribution/return period/depletion risk分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
鲍家勇,张春霞,谭承利,张讲社..基于copula函数的新能源枯竭风险分析[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(4):417-428,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(12371512,12501710) （12371512,12501710）
