北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(4)：456-469,14.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2026061
中国式农业农村现代化的多维评估与智能预测研究
Multidimensional evaluation and intelligent prediction of Chinese-style agricultural and rural modernization
摘要
Abstract
Based on panel data from 31 provinces autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government(excluding Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,Macao Special Administrative Region,and Taiwan province),autonomous regions,and municipalities in China from 2003 to 2022,this study analyzes the development status of Chinese-style agricultural and rural modernization.The Gini coefficient decomposition method is employed to measure regional disparities and identify their sources;kernel density estimation is used to examine dynamic evolution;and an obstacle degree model is applied to identify the primary constraining factors.Furthermore,multiple algorithms are integrated and optimized to achieve accurate prediction.The results show that,firstly,the overall level of Chinese-style agricultural and rural modernization exhibits an upward trend,although substantial regional disparities persist;secondly,the overall disparity fluctuates over time.Intra-regional disparities increase,particularly in the eastern region,whereas inter-regional disparities decrease but remain the principal source of the overall disparity;and thirdly,during the modernization process,absolute disparities narrow in the eastern region but tend to widen in the central and western regions.A comparative evaluation of the prediction models demonstrates that the particle swarm optimization-back propagation(PSO-BP)neural network model significantly reduces prediction errors and improves goodness of fit(R2),thereby exhibiting strong predictive performance.关键词
中国式农业农村现代化/基尼系数分解/核密度估计/障碍度/预测分析Key words
Chinese-style agricultural and rural modernization/Gini coefficient decomposition/kernel density estimation/obstacle degree/predictive analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马少娟,于智扬..中国式农业农村现代化的多维评估与智能预测研究[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(4):456-469,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BMZ113) （21BMZ113）
北方民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2025ZLGTTYS43) （2025ZLGTTYS43）
