北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(4)：481-491,11.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2026101
嘉陵江流域水文干旱特征及其驱动分析
Analysis of hydrological drought characteristics and drivers in the Jialing River basin
摘要
Abstract
The Jialing River is the largest tributary of the Yangtze River by drainage area and serves as a vital"water artery"for the high-quality development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.Under the superimposed pressures of global climate change and human activities,regional ecological and environmental protection is facing new challenges.Based on multi-source data including surface runoff,precipitation,evapotranspiration,and groundwater level in the Jialing River basin from 1990 to 2020,this study applied the standardized runoff index(SRI),run theory,geodetector,and structural equation model(SEM)to investigate the characteristics and driving factors of hydrological drought in the basin.The results indicate the following:1)As the aggregation time scale lengthens,hydrological drought exhibits an evolution pattern of lower frequency,longer duration,and higher severity,with spatial heterogeneity consistently present across short-,medium-,and long-term scales.2)The SRI series at different time scales,calculated from hydrological stations in the basin,displays pronounced spatiotemporal variability in its evolution,within which the year 2007 is identified as a critical turning point in hydrological drought development.3)Over the past 30 years,groundwater has consistently been the primary positive driver of hydrological drought,with its total effect declining from 0.37 before the turning point to 0.23 after.Evapotranspiration acts as the primary negative driver,and its total effect weakened from-0.30 before the turning point to −0.16 after.Notably,after the turning point,the total effects of both cropland and built-up land exceeded that of human water use,indicating that the intensification of hydrological drought driven by land use change has gradually replaced direct human water use as a significant driving mechanism.These findings can provide theoretical support for water resources security and drought prevention and control in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.关键词
水文干旱/驱动因子/游程理论/结构方程模型/嘉陵江流域Key words
hydrological drought/driving factors/run theory/structural equation model/Jialing River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
贺德军,龙训建,叶琰,叶勇,仇雪连,李天阳,张娜..嘉陵江流域水文干旱特征及其驱动分析[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(4):481-491,11.基金项目
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项资助项目(CSTB2023TIAD-KPX0075) （CSTB2023TIAD-KPX0075）
重庆市教委科学技术研究重大资助项目(KJZD-M202300203)) （KJZD-M202300203）
重庆市城管局科研资助项目(CGK202440) （CGK202440）
