北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(4)：505-514,10.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2025245
山东沿海城市灰水足迹变化特征及其影响因素
Variation patterns of grey water footprint and its influencing factors in Shandong's coastal cities
李鹏飞 1李玲玲 1张启超 1王占金 1张传兴 1李占杰 2姚晓磊 2李爽3
作者信息
- 1. 生态环境部陆海统筹生态治理与系统调控重点实验室,山东省生态环境规划研究院,山东济南
- 2. 北京师范大学水科学研究院,城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京
- 3. 北京市北运河管理处,北京
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanism of the grey water footprint(Q)in coastal areas of Shandong province from 2002 to 2021,this paper selects seven coastal cities as the study area to calculate and analyze its temporal trends and spatial patterns.The random forest model is adopted to identify the key influencing factors through relative importance analysis and partial dependence analysis.Furthermore,the structural equation model is used to quantitatively analyze the direct and indirect pathways among factors.The results indicate that the regional grey water footprint decreased at an average annual rate of 3.4%,following a three-stage pattern:an initial increase,subsequent stabilization,and a final decrease.Qagr accounts for the largest proportion on average,making it the primary source of the total Q.In terms of spatial distribution,both the total Q and Qagr present a pattern of higher values in the central region and lower values in the surrounding areas.Meanwhile,the distribution of Qdom and Qind is highly correlated with population size and industrial structure,respectively.Fertilizer application rate per unit cultivated land(Un−irr),aquaculture yield per unit area(Yagr),pollutant emission per standard livestock equivalent(Upol−liv),and industrial wastewater discharge intensity(Uind)are the core factors for the regional Q.The partial dependence relationship reveals the marginal effect of each factor on the Q.The structural equation model further confirms that agricultural non-point source pollution is the main driving factor for the increase in Q.Agricultural pollution control and industrial pollution treatment are the primary approaches for the reduction in Q.关键词
灰水足迹/时空变化/随机森林/影响因素/山东沿海城市Key words
grey water footprint/spatiotemporal variation/random forest/influencing factors/Shandong's coastal cities分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
李鹏飞,李玲玲,张启超,王占金,张传兴,李占杰,姚晓磊,李爽..山东沿海城市灰水足迹变化特征及其影响因素[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,62(4):505-514,10.
