沈阳农业大学学报2018，Vol.49Issue(2)：173-179,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1700.2018.02.007
基于标准化降水指数的干旱变化特征分析——以大庆地区为例
Analysis of Drought Change Characteristics Based on Standardized Precipitation Index——Taking Daqing as An Example
摘要
Abstract
Drought is an important factor re stricting the development of Daqing area. In order to study the characteristics of drought in Daqing area, a contrastive analysis was conducted to clarify the feasibility of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Daqing area using daily meteorological data of five stations from 1960 to 2015. Daqing historical drought episodes were taken consideration, and Chinese Z index was used as the control index. Meanwhile, four aspects of drought episodes (including magnitude, duration, frequency, and its cycle) were further investigated. The results indicated that at the short-term scale (1-3 months), the SPI index (especially severe drought) was superior to Chinese Z index in the drought recognition, while consistent with Chinese Z index at the 12-month long scale. The occurrence frequency of summer drought event (SPI<-1.0) was the highest (39.29%), of which moderate drought (SPI<-1.5) and severe drought (SPI<-2.0) accounted for 16.07%. Winter drought was the lowest in drought frequency (32.14%). As for the annual scale, long-term drought event (7 months or longer) was mainly occurred in Daqing area, followed by 3 months and 4 months. Inter annual drought occurred frequently in Daqing region. Drought occurred in 26 years within 56 years, and continuous drought occurred in 5 periods. Among them, the frequency of drought in the 1970s was the largest (7 times) and then decreased year by year. Wavelet analysis showed that the characteristics of drought in Daqing area presented periodic changes with the main periods of 2-6a, 12-15a and 24-28a. The real part of wavelet coefficients showed a positive trend after 2015, regardless of time scale, indicating that precipitation will be more in the area for some time to come. The trend analysis sh owed that although the annual precipitation increase was not significant in Daqing region in 56 years, the SPI value increases to a significant level of p<0.01, indicating that the Daqing climate showing a significant change in humidification compared with the aridification in the northeast.关键词
干旱/标准化降水指数/Z指数/小波分析/大庆Key words
drought/standardized precipitation index/Z-index/Morlet wavelet analysis/Daqing分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
迟道才,张欣雅,陈涛涛,张瑞..基于标准化降水指数的干旱变化特征分析——以大庆地区为例[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2018,49(2):173-179,7.基金项目
国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项项目(201303125) （农业）
国家自然科学基金项目(51679142,51709173) （51679142,51709173）
辽宁省特聘教授基金项目(2013) （2013）
