气候变化对延伸期预报的影响OACSTPCD

Climate change has a significant impact on the global ecological environment and human activities.The extended range forecast with a time limit of 10 to 30 days,as an important part of the seamless forecast system,connects weather forecast and short-term climate forecast.Due to the increasing impact of climate change,extended range forecast will face even greater challenges.Therefore,this paper starts with an overview of the current situation of extended-range forecast both domestically and internationally,analyzing the impact of global climate change on the distribution characteristics of extreme weather and climate events,as well as the predictability of key circulation systems.It is found that climate change will lead to increase the difficulty and demand for extended range forecast,and also highlight the role of extended-range forecast in disaster prevention and mitigation.Further outlook on the new challenges that extended range forecast will face and new trends in future business development,and propose response measures and suggestions to adapt to climate change,such as vigorously developing numerical forecast models,conducting in-depth research on extended range forecast mechanisms,vigorously developing forecast methods that combine dynamics and statistics,and attempting interdisciplinary cross-collaboration.