沙漠与绿洲气象2024，Vol.18Issue(1)：12-19,8.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2024.01.002
气候变化对延伸期预报的影响
Impact of Climate Change on Extended Range Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Climate change has a significant impact on the global ecological environment and human activities.The extended range forecast with a time limit of 10 to 30 days,as an important part of the seamless forecast system,connects weather forecast and short-term climate forecast.Due to the increasing impact of climate change,extended range forecast will face even greater challenges.Therefore,this paper starts with an overview of the current situation of extended-range forecast both domestically and internationally,analyzing the impact of global climate change on the distribution characteristics of extreme weather and climate events,as well as the predictability of key circulation systems.It is found that climate change will lead to increase the difficulty and demand for extended range forecast,and also highlight the role of extended-range forecast in disaster prevention and mitigation.Further outlook on the new challenges that extended range forecast will face and new trends in future business development,and propose response measures and suggestions to adapt to climate change,such as vigorously developing numerical forecast models,conducting in-depth research on extended range forecast mechanisms,vigorously developing forecast methods that combine dynamics and statistics,and attempting interdisciplinary cross-collaboration.关键词
气候变化/延伸期预报/可预报性/极端天气Key words
climate change/extended range forecast/predictability/extreme weather分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
蔡芗宁,马杰,刘晓波,关月..气候变化对延伸期预报的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2024,18(1):12-19,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金——气象联合基金项目(U2142207) （U2142207）
气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSZ002、22NLTSZ004) （22NLTSZ002、22NLTSZ004）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J010) （CXFZ2023J010）
