基于多变量灰色模型的台风强度模拟方法OACSTPCD

With the continuous improvement of typhoon full-path simulation technology,the typhoon hazard analysis method for the whole sea area and a wide range has been developed.However,the simulation accuracy of the intensity model cannot meet the demand.Aiming at the characteristics of typhoon intensity evolution affected by multiple factors,complex dynamic relationship and strong randomness of intensity change,the simulation method of typhoon intensity is studied based on multivariate grey model,and the multivariate grey intensity model of typhoon is established.Using this model,the intensity evolution process of Typhoon Mangkhut is restored,and the overall typhoon intensity in the northwest Pacific region is simulated and tested.The results show that the grey correlation degrees of vertical wind shear and vertical velocity with typhoon intensity are 0.771 8 and 0.745 1,respectively,which are significantly higher than those of the other three environmental factors.The posterior error ratio and small probability error of Typhoon Mangkhut intensity simulation are 0.349 1 and 0.960 8,respectively,which reach the highest simulation accuracy.The overall intensity change trend and distribution characteristics of the northwest Pa-cific region obtained by the model simulation are consistent with the actual situation in the region.