灾害学2024，Vol.39Issue(1)：17-22,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2024.01.004
基于多变量灰色模型的台风强度模拟方法
Simulation Method of Typhoon Intensity Based on Multivariate Grey Model
摘要
Abstract
With the continuous improvement of typhoon full-path simulation technology,the typhoon hazard analysis method for the whole sea area and a wide range has been developed.However,the simulation accuracy of the intensity model cannot meet the demand.Aiming at the characteristics of typhoon intensity evolution affected by multiple factors,complex dynamic relationship and strong randomness of intensity change,the simulation method of typhoon intensity is studied based on multivariate grey model,and the multivariate grey intensity model of typhoon is established.Using this model,the intensity evolution process of Typhoon Mangkhut is restored,and the overall typhoon intensity in the northwest Pacific region is simulated and tested.The results show that the grey correlation degrees of vertical wind shear and vertical velocity with typhoon intensity are 0.771 8 and 0.745 1,respectively,which are significantly higher than those of the other three environmental factors.The posterior error ratio and small probability error of Typhoon Mangkhut intensity simulation are 0.349 1 and 0.960 8,respectively,which reach the highest simulation accuracy.The overall intensity change trend and distribution characteristics of the northwest Pa-cific region obtained by the model simulation are consistent with the actual situation in the region.关键词
极值风速/强度模型/灰色关联度/台风"山竹"/西北太平洋Key words
extreme wind speed/typhoon intensity model/grey relativity/typhoon Mangkhut/northwest Pa-cific分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
孙建鹏,郑仕豪,马萧岗,黄文锋..基于多变量灰色模型的台风强度模拟方法[J].灾害学,2024,39(1):17-22,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51408453) （51408453）
陕西省自然科学基金面上项目(2023-JY-YB-373、2020JM-475) （2023-JY-YB-373、2020JM-475）
