干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(1)：15-27,13.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.353
塔里木河"四源"洪水演变规律及成因分析
Evolution law and causes of floods in the four sources streams of Tarim River
摘要
Abstract
Based on temperature,precipitation,and snow depth data from five hydrological stations in four sourc-es of the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang,China,from 1981 to 2020,flood magnitude,frequency,and peak time were analyzed using maximum and peak-over-threshold(POT)sampling methods.Moreover,correlation analysis was performed to reveal the relationship between different flood indicators and influencing factors and identify key influencing factors.The results show the following:(1)From 1981 to 2020,the peak discharge of each hy-drological station in"four sources"of the Tarim River Basin is as follows:Kaqung>Xehera>Tongguzlok>Sharikilank>Daschankou.The annual and seasonal flood peak discharge generally exhibited an increasing trend,and the occurrence time of the flood peak in winter exhibited an earlier state,among which the average annual ad-vance of Sharikilank was 2.61 days,whereas that of the Kaqung station was only 0.67 days.(2)There were two periods of high flooding in the Tarim River Basin,namely,1994-2002 and 2006-2011,with several flood oc-currences in the Tarim River Basin after 1990.(3)The minimum temperature,precipitation,and snow depth at dif-ferent times before the floods mainly exhibited an increasing trend,while the maximum temperature mainly ex-hibited a decrease.The highest correlation was found between spring flood indicators and maximum 3-day precip-itation,whereas the highest correlation was found between autumn flood indicators and maximum 7-day precipi-tation.The correlation between multi-day precipitation and flood indicators was higher than that between single-day precipitation and flood indicators.Among the snow depth-related factors,the maximum 15-day snow depth had the highest correlation with spring flood indicators at each station.These findings provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management and flood disaster prediction.关键词
洪水/重现期/POT采样/塔里木河"四源"Key words
flood/recurrence period/POT sampling/four sources streams of Tarim River引用本文复制引用
邬晓丹,罗敏,孟凡浩,萨楚拉,董金义,刘铁..塔里木河"四源"洪水演变规律及成因分析[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(1):15-27,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42101030,42361024,42261079) （42101030,42361024,42261079）
内蒙古高校青年科技英才(NJYT22027,NJYT23019) （NJYT22027,NJYT23019）
第三次新疆综合科学考察(2021xjkk1400) （2021xjkk1400）
内蒙古师范大学研究生科研创新基金(CXJJS22132) （CXJJS22132）
内蒙古师范大学基本科研业务费专项资金(2022JBXC017)资助 （2022JBXC017）
