塔里木河"四源"洪水演变规律及成因分析OACSTPCD

Based on temperature,precipitation,and snow depth data from five hydrological stations in four sourc-es of the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang,China,from 1981 to 2020,flood magnitude,frequency,and peak time were analyzed using maximum and peak-over-threshold(POT)sampling methods.Moreover,correlation analysis was performed to reveal the relationship between different flood indicators and influencing factors and identify key influencing factors.The results show the following:(1)From 1981 to 2020,the peak discharge of each hy-drological station in"four sources"of the Tarim River Basin is as follows:Kaqung>Xehera>Tongguzlok>Sharikilank>Daschankou.The annual and seasonal flood peak discharge generally exhibited an increasing trend,and the occurrence time of the flood peak in winter exhibited an earlier state,among which the average annual ad-vance of Sharikilank was 2.61 days,whereas that of the Kaqung station was only 0.67 days.(2)There were two periods of high flooding in the Tarim River Basin,namely,1994-2002 and 2006-2011,with several flood oc-currences in the Tarim River Basin after 1990.(3)The minimum temperature,precipitation,and snow depth at dif-ferent times before the floods mainly exhibited an increasing trend,while the maximum temperature mainly ex-hibited a decrease.The highest correlation was found between spring flood indicators and maximum 3-day precip-itation,whereas the highest correlation was found between autumn flood indicators and maximum 7-day precipi-tation.The correlation between multi-day precipitation and flood indicators was higher than that between single-day precipitation and flood indicators.Among the snow depth-related factors,the maximum 15-day snow depth had the highest correlation with spring flood indicators at each station.These findings provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management and flood disaster prediction.