人类活动及气候变化影响下伊犁河谷生境质量预测研究OACSTPCD

Habitat quality is critical for ecosystem service function and overall health.Accurate prediction of its evolution is essential for fostering high-quality regional ecosystem development.This study employed the system dynamic patch-generating land use simulation(SD-PLUS)model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem ser-vices and trade-offs(InVEST)model to forecast land pattern changes,and evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under diverse 2035 climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5).The findings are as follows:(1)From 1980 to 2020,Ili River Valley land use exhibited a"four in-crease and two decrease"trend.In 2035,under the four climate scenarios,forest and grassland areas in the Ili Riv-er Valley will decrease,with a noticeable trend of construction land expansion,leading to the displacement of high-quality arable land in the suburbs.(2)Habitat quality in the Ili River Valley correlates closely with land use/cover type.High-and higher-value habitat areas are primarily scattered in rugged forest and grassland cover ar-eas.Low-and lower-value areas are mainly concentrated in areas with concentrated human activities and unused land cover areas in the north and south Tianshan Mountains.(3)From 1980 to 2020,the habitat quality in the Ili River Valley exhibited a declining trend,particularly in areas near the Ili-Kunes River and Tekes River Basins.(4)The habitat index of the Ili River Valley is projected to decrease under the four climate scenarios in 2035,with the mean value following the order:SSP1-2.6>SSP2-4.5>SSP3-7.0>SSP5-8.5.Notably,habitat quality in Yin-ing City,border ports,and agricultural and livestock bases is at risk of degradation.In conclusion,the results of this study provide valuable insights for developing ecological restoration policies in the Ili River Valley region and offer innovative ideas for predicting habitat quality in arid and semi-arid areas.