三孩政策下家庭教育期望及其生育效应OACHSSCDCSTPCD

With the development of economy and society and the change in fertility concept,family fertility decision-making on childbearing has become increasingly rational and entered a cost-constrained stage.Higher parental educational expectations and fierce educational competition affect family fertility intention and willingness.By constructing the analysis framework of education expectations,cultivation strategy and fertility effect under the constraint of family resources,and based on the large sample survey data,this paper examines the impact of education expectations on family fertility.The study found that family education expectations significantly increased the probability of having a first child,but reduced the probability of having a second child,and higher educational expectations led families to adopt"quality instead of quantity"fertility decisions.Heterogeneity analysis found that educational expectations have a differentiated effect on the number of births and the willingness to reproduce in different classes.The higher education expectation significantly reduces the fertility intention and behavior of the second and third children in middle and low income families;However,in the high-income group,higher educational expectations did not have a squeeze effect on the fertility willingness and behavior of the second and third children.Further research found that the educational level of couples of childbearing age and family education expectation substitute each other on second-child fertility.That is,the lower the educational level of couples of childbearing age,the greater the squeezing effect of educational expectations on second-child fertility.The mechanistic analysis found that higher educational expectations significantly reduced the families'preference for boys,indicating that as parents have higher educational expectations for their children,they pay more attention to the quality of their children rather than gender and quantity,resulting in fertility decisions with fewer children.The expectation of family education has irreversibility to some extent and convergence of different groups.So it is necessary to reduce the family rearing cost and ease the family rearing anxiety.In order to increase family fertility rate,we should improve the equal development of urban and rural education through developing inclusive preschool education and compulsory education,and improve family fertility expectations through providing diversified market parenting services.