现代医药卫生2024，Vol.40Issue(1)：20-25,30,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-5519.2024.01.004
基于ARIMA模型预测镇江市肺结核流行趋势及分析
Prediction and analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic trend in Zhenjiang City based on ARIMA
摘要
Abstract
Objective To predict the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence in Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu Province by constructing a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and verify the effectiveness of the model,and to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prevalence state of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods The pulmonary tuberculosis monthly incidence data during 2014-2022 in Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu Province were collected to construct a seasonal ARIMA model.The model's predictive performance was validated by using the onset number of pulmonary tuberculosis from January to December 2022,and the causes of prediction errors were analyzed.Results A total of 1 316 cases of pulmona-ry tuberculosis were reported in Zhenjiang City during 2014-2022.The overall incidence rate showed a down-ward trend,except for the slight increase in 2017,2019.The onset was mainly concentrated from March to Au-gust.The ARIMA model with parameters(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12 had the lowest BIC value(5.913),and the white noise residuals also passed the test.However,the AR coefficient in the short-term autocorrelation was not sig-nificant,so the ARIMA model with parameters(0,1,1)(1,1,0)12 was established.There was a certain devia-tion between the actual value and predictive value in monthly incidence number of pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhenjiang City during 2022(average relative prediction error of 19.20％).However,all were within the 95％confidence interval of the fitted values.The change trend of the actual monthly incidence number(average 78 cases/month)was basically consistent with the predicted value(average 78 cases/month).The model fitting degree was well and could be used to predict the epidemiological situation of pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhen-jiang City.Conclusion This model is used to predict the incidence number of pulmonary tuberculosis in Zhen-jiang City in the short term,and it is considered that the overall trend of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic in Zhenjiang City will remain the downward trend in the long run.关键词
ARIMA模型/肺结核/传染病预测/新型冠状病毒感染/镇江Key words
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model/Tuberculosis/Prediction of infec-tious diseases/COVID-19/Zhenjiang分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
伍鸿远,夏媛媛..基于ARIMA模型预测镇江市肺结核流行趋势及分析[J].现代医药卫生,2024,40(1):20-25,30,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD224) （20&ZD224）
江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目(2020RWPT0101) （2020RWPT0101）
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划(202210312047Z). （202210312047Z）
