广西—东盟国家贸易格局的时空演变及其影响因素研究OACHSSCDCSTPCD

As the forefront of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),studying the evolution of the trade pattern between Guangxi and ASEAN countries and its influencing factors is of great practical significance.Based on bilateral trade data between Guan-gxi and ASEAN countries from 2002 to 2019,this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of the trade pattern between Guangxi and ASEAN countries using HM index and ArcGIS visualization software,and then an empirical study was conducted by constructing a gravity model and using Stata software.The results showed that:Guangxi's export dependence on most ASEAN countries had gradually deepened,but there were significant differences in the degree of interdependence.Among them,Guangxi's export dependence on Viet-nam had significantly increased,while its export dependence on Thailand and the Philippines had significantly decreased.Vietnam had become Guangxi's most important trading partner.In addition,the per capita GDP,population size,Guangxi's foreign direct investment in ASEAN countries,air routes,port routes,and territorial border between Guangxi and ASEAN countries were significantly positively correlated with their bilateral trade amount,while the geographical distance between Guangxi and the capitals of ASEAN countries was significantly negatively correlated with their bilateral trade amount.