融合信息物理社会因素的配电网可靠性评估方法OA北大核心CSTPCD

This paper proposes a reliability evaluation method for the distribution network incorporating cyber-physical-social factors to analyze the influence of advanced technology in cyber systems and the emergency conservation measures in social systems in the major social events on the reliability of the distribution network.First,in order to analyze the interaction of cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS),this paper constructs a CPSS interactive framework for distribution network reliability.Then,by constructing the equipment developmental and destructive fault state transition models,it quantifies the relationship between the defect diagnosis and action period of risk warning technology in the cyber system as well as the technical level of overhauling personnel and the equipment fault rate in the social system.By constructing the equipment fault recovery time model,it quantifies the relationship between the accuracy of fault location technology in the cyber system and the traffic road condition,the sufficiency of emergency supplies and the equipment fault recovery time in the social system.Finally,to verify the effectiveness of the framework and models,this paper establishes a test system containing the basic information of CPSS.The results validate the role of cyber and social systems in enhancing the reliability of the distribution physical systems.