城市更新投资项目经济评估问题OA北大核心CSTPCD

Urban regeneration has become a new strategy for urban spatial development in China.The strategy is implemented through various urban regeneration investment projects at the city level.However,project economic assessment,one of the important steps in the preparation process from planning to project implementation,has been largely neglected or even totally ignored.Such a negligence would result in the implementation of economically unviable projects,wasting scarce financial and fiscal resources.Based on international experiences and within China's urban planning and implementation framework,this paper discusses how to define an urban regeneration investment project,how to carry out project economic and financial assessment,and how to treat the government fiscal obligations incurred from urban regeneration projects. There is no clearly-established preparation process from urban regeneration strategy to project implementation.This paper proposes a process that would be consistent with the statutory urban planning process.The proposed process includes the following steps:(1)an urban regeneration strategy plan that would connect with urban master plan;(2)urban regeneration project pool which includes the projects selected from the strategy plan;(3)urban regeneration implementation plan and feasibility studies to select priority projects to go to the project pipeline for implementation in the next five-years;and(5)financing and implementation of bankable priority projects.Project feasibility studies will be the key step for project economic,financial and fiscal analyses. There are a variety of urban regeneration projects,including the regeneration of industrial parks,urban neighborhoods,historical districts,etc.The paper emphasizes the importance of clearly defining the project objectives and technical scope.Some projects are for social objectives with little chance for cost recovery,such as shantytown regeneration and site-and-service improvement projects.Other projects are mainly for commercial objectives with a great opportunity for profit,such as urban village regeneration to turn an urban village into a gated community for high-income homeowners.The need for public or private investment,or a combination of both in the form of public-private partnership(PPP),would be determined by the project objectives.And the technical scope of regeneration will be determined by the dilapidated conditions of the existing land use and the plan for new land use. The paper proposes a fairly standardized procedure for the feasibility study of urban regeneration projects,with a focus on alternative analysis,cost-benefit analysis,fiscal impact analysis,and risk analysis.The paper suggests that local governments should not take the economically unviable project unless it is for justified social objectives.If a project is economically viable but financially unviable,local governments may consider the application of PPP.The paper suggests that the project-affected persons should be defined to include the housing tenants in the case of urban village regeneration.Even though compensation to the housing tenants may not be possible in the near future,informing the authorities of the winners and losers is important part of the project feasibility studies. The paper also discusses how to handle fiscal obligations incurred from urban regeneration projects where local governments are a party of a PPP financing arrangement.Fiscal obligations include direct obligations incurred through viability gap financing by the governments in PPP and contingent liabilities such as government guarantee to the debt payment of a PPP project.There is no any arrangement for local fiscal obligations at the local level in China yet.But a lot of international experiences can be learned.The paper cites the examples of Brazil,UK,France,Colombia,Peru,Hungary,India,Chile,Korea and Indonesia. Most of the urban regeneration projects are mega-projects,often implemented for a long period of time,thus facing many uncertainties and significant implementation risks.A good urban regeneration project should be one that is economically viable,financially bankable,fiscally feasible,environmentally sustainable,and socially acceptable.Adopting these project feasibility criteria is important to avoid implementing premature,poorly defined,inappropriately designed projects that would waste financial and land resources and disrupt the life of many people.The paper further suggests the local governments to adopt a prudent strategy of"slow preparation and quick implementation,"a strategy proposed by Prof.Bent Flyvbjerg after summarizing the experiences of success and failure of a large number of mega-projects around the world.