考虑抵达时间成本的道路交通事故风险评估方法OA北大核心CSTPCD

Road traffic accidents occur frequently and have significant impacts on life,property,and society.However,existing researches on road traffic accident risk pay little attention on establishing an effective road network model that accurately describes the transmission characteristics of traffic accident risk.As a result,the accuracy of risk evaluation is limited.To address this issue,we propose a network geographically weighted regression method based on arrival time cost.We conduct experiments using data from roads,traffic violations,traffic accidents,and urban points of interest(POIs)in a city from 2018 to 2020.The experimental results demonstrate that the network geographically weighted regression method,based on arrival time cost,incorporates the propagation nature of traffic accident risk on the road.It significantly reduces evaluation errors and effectively evaluates road traffic accident risk and its influencing factors.The downtown area of the city exhibits high accident risk,primarily concentrated at intersections with heavy traffic flow and certain road points with inadequate transportation facilities.The impact of different types of road traffic violations and urban POIs on the risk of road traffic accidents varies significantly and exhibits strong spatial heterogeneity.