基于PLUS-InVEST模型吐哈盆地陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟OA北大核心CSTPCD

Land cover variations can change regional carbon storage capacity,thereby affecting global climate change.Investigating the impact of land cover changes on carbon stocks and predicting the carbon stocks under different land cover scenarios are crucial in the future for achieving the regional strategic goal of"carbon neutrali-ty".However,ecologically fragile(such as land degradation and desertification)areas in western China remain to be explored.This study selected the Turpan-Hami Basin in Xinjiang as the study area based on the land cover product data,PLUS model,and InVEST model.Furthermore,this paper discusses the spatiotemporal relationship between land cover changes and regional carbon storage and predicts and evaluates their spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics under sustainable development scenarios,maintaining the status quo development scenario,and economic priority development scenarios in 2025 and 2030.The results showed that:(1)In the last 20 years,the Turpan-Hami Basin has the most significant increase in cultivated land and bare land areas among its various land use types,followed by construction land.Conversely,grasslands have exhibited the most notable decreasing trend.Additionally,the conversion of grassland to cultivated and construction lands was the main transfer type.(2)In 2000,2010,and 2020,the average carbon storage in the Turpan-Hami Basin was 26.01 t·hm-2,25.68 t·hm-2,and 25.73 t·hm-2,respectively,indicating a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.The cumulative average carbon storage decreased by 0.28 t·hm-2,of which the carbon storage of soil organic matter accounted for the highest proportion,approximately 94%of the total carbon storage.Bare land and grassland contributed the most to carbon storage.(3)Under the three scenarios in 2030,no noticeable change was observed in forests,shrubbery,and wetlands;moreover,bare land showed a decreasing trend,while construction land showed an increasing trend in land cover.(4)By 2030,the total carbon storage of Turpan-Hami Basin under the sustainable development sce-nario increased by 0.18×106 t than that in 2020 and decreased by 0.30×106 t and 1.01×106 t under the status quo de-velopment and economic development scenarios,respectively.Among the three scenarios,the carbon storage loss was highest under the economic development scenario.These results provide a basis for land use optimization and sustainable ecosystem development measures in the Turpan-Hami Basin.