水科学进展2024，Vol.35Issue(1)：1-10,10.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2024.01.001
关于中国水达峰几个问题的讨论
Discussion on issues related to water peaking in China
摘要
Abstract
The evolution trend and the peak of water use are related to the overall situation of economic and social development and ecological environmental protection,and directly affect the overall pattern of major water conservancy projects,such as the national water grid design and construction.In this study,the definition and connotation of water-use peaking were discussed,and the natural social characteristics,including of GDP per capita,industrial structure,and the level of urbanization,when the national water-use peaking have been reached are summarized for 15 developed countries.Especially,the possible reasons for water-use amounts since 2013 presented a slowly come-down trend were identified and discussed,and then give a important conclusion that it is early to say the water-use peak has been reached in China.Finally,it is pointed out that the pressure of water resources security in China is still seriously,and there is a certain uncertainty about the evolution of water-use in the future.What is the peak water volume?and when should be the peak?The conclusion needs further deeply study.At the same time,a nice top-level design of the national water-grid project is necessary,to improve the ability to optimize the allocation of water resources at different scales,and provide water resources security for the high-quality development of the country.关键词
水达峰/自然社会基础/演变态势/缺水识别/用水需求Key words
water peaks/social basis of nature/evolutionary dynamics/water shortage identification/water de-mand分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张建云,王建华,何国华,赵勇,金君良,刘翠善,贺瑞敏..关于中国水达峰几个问题的讨论[J].水科学进展,2024,35(1):1-10,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3200204) （2021YFC3200204）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52121006)The study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFC3200204)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52121006). （52121006）
