气候变化研究进展2024，Vol.20Issue(1)：26-36,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.203
气候变化背景下融合社交媒体情感与多源数据的洪涝损失估算
Flood loss estimation by integrating social media sentiment and multi-source data under climate change background
摘要
Abstract
Based on social media text data,the flood loss estimation model(ISFRD)was constructed that combines the core factors causing flooding,disaster-bearing vectors and real-time sentiment data.First,text information related to flooding on the Sina Weibo platform was extracted based on natural language processing technology to achieve data preprocessing.Geolocation enrichment was then performed and the validity of the Weibo data was verified using the example of the exceptionally heavy rainfall in Henan province.Afterwards,loss estimation was made for several flood events in China based on a multi-source set of factors such as flood causation and sentiment,and the accuracy of the loss estimation was verified against the actual losses.The results are as follows.(1)In social media,the peak sentiment mutation points of heavy rainfall and flooding are mainly concentrated in June to August each year.Also,the peak sentiment change and the discussion of hot flood events have a strong synchronous relationship.(2)Flood losses have an inverse relationship with average sentiment,i.e.,the lower the average sentiment value is,the more serious the disaster damage is in general.(3)The ISFRD flood damage model can effectively assess heavy rainfall and flooding events at the provincial(municipal)scale with different degrees of damage,and the estimation results have high accuracy(average accuracy>90%,MAE=27.04,RMSE=45.26).Under the increasingly complex climate environment,the model can provide a certain reference for rapid determination of flood damage,disaster prevention and mitigation,and public opinion guidance.关键词
社交媒体/情感分析/多源数据/ISFRD模型/灾损估算Key words
Social media/Sentiment analysis/Multi-source data/ISFRD model/Loss estimation引用本文复制引用
武志霞,郑霞忠,陈一君,黄山,胡文莉,段晨斐..气候变化背景下融合社交媒体情感与多源数据的洪涝损失估算[J].气候变化研究进展,2024,20(1):26-36,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51878385) （51878385）
成渝地区双城经济圈川南发展研究院项目(CYQCNY20223) （CYQCNY20223）
川酒发展研究中心项目(CJY23-12) （CJY23-12）
