新农保的预期养老保障功能能否促进土地转出?OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD

The lack of long-term institutional pension security in rural areas has been a key constraint on the development of the land transfer market.This paper systematically analyzes the impact of the New Rural Insurance(NRI)on the land transfer decision of farm households under the age of 60 and its differences under different intergenerational support conditions through empirical analyses of four-period panel data,which are collected from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)from 2011 to 2018.It finds that the expected old-age security function provided by the NRI can substitute for the old-age security function of the land and lower farmers'expectations of future land operation output,thus reducing the supply of farm labor,and promoting land transfer.Particularly noteworthy is that this effect is particularly significant in cases where the offspring provide economic support.In addition,when the offspring do not provide economic support,participation in the NRI can encourage farmers to transfer farm labor to non-farm labor with a high marginal income,which also promotes land transfer.Further analysis also reveals the differential impacts of the NRI in different regions.Participation in the NRI can induce farm households in the eastern and central regions to engage more in non-farm labor,while it can induce farm households in the western region to reduce their labor supply.Therefore,this paper suggests improving the articulation and transformation mechanism of NRI,paying special attention to the disadvantaged groups with insufficient economic support from their offspring and those in less developed regions,and adopting differentiated policy support to improve the level of old-age security.