中国死亡独生子女母亲总量及变动趋势再研究OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD

With the decrease in China's fertility level,only-child families in urban areas have gradually become the mainstream,and face significant risks of only-child mortality.The release of the Seventh National Census provides more comprehensive data for exploring the number of women who lost their only child.Based on the data from the Forth to Seventh National Census,this paper summarizes the patterns of women with different numbers of children,and calculates the number of women aged 50 and above who have lost their only child in 2020 by population-shift algorithm.The results showed that about 2.888 million women aged 50 and above lost their all children born,among which 1.919 million women are aged 50-59,accounting for 66.4%of the total number of women who lost their only child.There is a lack of consistency of the number of women who have lost their only child between the Sixth National Census data and the Seventh National Census data.Based on the target prediction results from the Sixth National Census data to the Seventh National Census data,the Seventh National Census data may overestimate the number of women losing their only child.With the decline of fertility level and the delay of fertility,the risk of losing only child will increase in the future,and the rapid growth trend of the number of women who losing only child will remain stable.On the one hand,this paper suggests to accelerate the construction of fertility support system to avoid long-term low fertility rate.On the other hand,the system of special support for family planning families should be further improved,and multiple departments should coordinate and expand support resources for parents with only one child.