热力发电2024，Vol.53Issue(3)：42-50,9.DOI:10.19666/j.rlfd.202309163
光伏电站环网柜温湿度非线性耦合预测模型研究
Research on the prediction model of temperature and humidity in the ring main unit based on nonlinear coupling method
摘要
Abstract
The working environment of the ring main unit(RMU)in large solar photovoltaic power plants is complex and variable,faced with harsh environments such as temperature differences and humidity,it is extremely easy to cause operational failures of the ring grid cabinet,which seriously affects the safe and stable connection of solar photovoltaic to transmission lines.Based on the measured temperature and humidity data inside the RMU,utilizing the advantages of ARIMA and RBF model in linear and nonlinear data processing,a temperature and humidity prediction model with ARIMA-RBF weight combination is constructed to dynamically predict the temperature and humidity inside the RMU.The dynamic prediction of temperature and humidity in the actual loop cabinet of a photovoltaic power station is carried out.The prediction results show that,compared with the single model,the ARMI-RBF weight combination model has higher prediction accuracy and better stability.The combined model gives full play to the processing ability of a single model for different characteristics of data through appropriate weighting strategies,and can better evaluate the temperature and humidity state inside the RMU.It can provide a reference for the establishment of a more universal prediction model,and help to reduce the failure caused by long-term operation of the ring cabinet under ultra-mild and humid environment.关键词
太阳能光伏/环网柜/温湿度/非线性耦合/权重组合预测模型Key words
solar photovoltaic/ring main unit/temperature and humidity/nonlinear coupling/weighted combination prediction model引用本文复制引用
徐冬梅,张杰,刘学广,邹君文..光伏电站环网柜温湿度非线性耦合预测模型研究[J].热力发电,2024,53(3):42-50,9.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(GJRD2021-04)Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(GJRD2021-04) （GJRD2021-04）
