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日本新《海洋基本计划》解析:特点、动因与影响OA北大核心CHSSCD

Analysis of Japan's New Basic Ocean Plan:Characteristics,Motivations and Influences

中文摘要英文摘要

日本长期以"海洋国家"自居,海洋战略不仅在其国家战略体系中占据重要地位,更关乎中日双边关系及地区和平与稳定.2023 年4 月28 日,日本出台第四份《海洋基本计划》,用以指导今后五年具体海洋政策.作为岸田文雄上台执政,并对日本安保政策作出重大调整后的首份《海洋基本计划》,其相较于第三份《海洋基本计划》呈现出"泛安全化"趋势空前加剧、将海洋"威胁"主要来源从朝鲜调整为中国与俄罗斯、提出"构建可持续海洋"基本方针三大特点.造成此种变化主要原因包括:日本战略文化中危机意识、扩张主义及尚武等因素的长期浸润;日本国家战略进入向以"政治大国""军事大国"为核心诉求的"全面大国"转型加速期;日本外部环境发生以进入所谓"新时代"为代表的显著变化;岸田政权因经济低迷、少子老龄化、系列政治丑闻等问题遭遇执政危机.日本未来以第四份《海洋基本计划》为蓝本的海洋政策调整,或将对中日关系、地区安全形势乃至全球"高边疆"领域合作造成负面影响,值得予以高度警惕.

Japan has long claimed itself as a maritime country,and its maritime strategy does not only occu-py an important position in its national strategic system,but also it concerns the bilateral relations between China and Japan as well as regional peace and stability.On April 28,2023,Japan introduced its fourth Basic Plan on Ocean Policy for guiding specific marine policies within the next five years.Since Fumio Kishida came to power and made major adjustments to Japan's security policies,this has been the first ver-sion of the Basic Ocean Plan for exhibiting three major characteristics compared to the third Basic Plan on Ocean Policy.These characteristics are an unprecedented increase in the trend of pan-securitization,the adjustment of the main sources of maritime threats from North Korea to China and Russia,and the proposal of the basic principle of building a sustainable ocean.The main reasons for these changes include the long-term infiltration of crisis awareness,expansionism,and militarism in Japan's strategic culture,the acceler-ation of Japan's national strategy transformation towards becoming a great power with political power and military power as its core appeals,significant changes in Japan's external environment represented by ente-ring the so-called"new era",and the Kishida regime facing governance crises due to economic downturn,aging population and a series of political scandals.Japan's future adjustment of its marine policies based on the fourth Basic Ocean Plan may have a negative impact on Sino-Japanese relations,regional security situa-tion,and even cooperation in the global high frontier area,which deserves high vigilance.

谢若初

国际关系学院,北京 100091

政治法律

第四份《海洋基本计划》日本海洋战略海洋国家中日关系

The Fourth Basic Plan on Ocean PolicyJapan's ocean strategymaritime nationSino-Japan relations

《太平洋学报》 2024 (002)

84-95 / 12

本文系国家社科基金后期资助项目"21世纪初日本外交战略研究"(22FGJB017)的阶段性成果.

10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2024.02.007

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