农学学报2024，Vol.14Issue(3)：40-47,8.
基于Maxent和ArcGIS加拿大一枝黄花适生区预测
Prediction of Suitable Growing Areas of Solidago canadensis L.Based on Maxent and ArcGIS
摘要
Abstract
To study the suitable growth areas and distribution influencing factors of Solidago canadensis L.in China for effective prevention and control,the Maximum Entropy model(Maxent)and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential habitat of Solidago canadensis L.in China under current and future(2041-2060 and 2061-2080)climate models.The results showed that the predicted AUC value of the current fitness zone was 0.933 and the model prediction results were ideal;the distribution of the fitness zone was mainly influenced by the maximum temperature and precipitation;the potential fitness zone was mainly distributed in east and central China,mainly in the whole area of Shanghai,south-central Jiangsu Province,central Anhui Province,northern Jiangxi Province,eastern Hunan Province,eastern Hubei Province,and some parts of Zhejiang Province and the area along the coastline.Over time,from 2041 to 2060,the area of the middle and high fitness zones will increase by 1060400 km2 and the low fitness zone will increase by 1106200 km2 compared with the present;from 2061 to 2080,the area of the high and middle fitness zones will increase by 1109900 km2 and the low fitness zone will increase by 1115500 km2 compared with the present.Overall,under future climate change,the habitat zone of Solidago canadensis L.shows a trend of continuous expansion,and it is suggested that the relevant authorities should develop a responsive hierarchical management strategy based on the changing trend of its potential habitat zone to prevent further spread.关键词
入侵植物/加拿大一枝黄花/Maxent模型/气候变化Key words
invasive plant/Solidago canadensis L./Maxent model/climate change分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
常悦,李玉静,李周旭,韩红英,石金梅,李良涛..基于Maxent和ArcGIS加拿大一枝黄花适生区预测[J].农学学报,2024,14(3):40-47,8.基金项目
河北省科技厅峰峰矿区四个一科技示范基地项目"峰峰矿区连翘产业科技示范基地"(202206) （202206）
河北省自然基金面上项目"模拟增温和干旱对太行山退化生境中人工林更新的影响研究"(C2020402022) （C2020402022）
河北省自然基金面上项目邯郸市林业局"邯郸市林草湿外来入侵物种普查"(20221112). （20221112）
