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2023年中国石油焦市场分析及2024年预测OACHSSCDCSTPCD

Analysis of China's petroleum coke market in 2023 and forecast for 2024

中文摘要英文摘要

截至2023年年底,中国延迟焦化能力达到1.48亿吨/年.2023年中国石油焦产量达到3173万吨,主营炼厂产量占比为57%,地方炼厂占比43%;以高硫焦为主,占比80%以上.2023年,中国进口石油焦1602万吨,出口石油焦仅19万吨,净进口量1583万吨.2023年中国石油焦表观消费量达到4516万吨.虽然中国石油焦价格总体呈上升态势,但与上年相比,2023年中国石油焦价格暴跌.预计2024年中国石油焦市场的国内产量为3150万吨,净进口量为1400万吨,库存变化为下降200万吨,表观消费量为4750万吨.石油焦作为"减油增特"的特色炼油产品之一,对中国成品油市场调节能力非常有限,建议生产企业应该随着中国石油焦需求动能的变化,积极拓展负极材料相关客户,根据其数量、质量需求灵活调整石油焦生产和销售策略.

By the end of 2023,China's delayed coking capacity has reached 148 million tons per year.In 2023,China's petroleum coke production reached 31.73 million tons,with state-owned refineries accounting for 57%of the production and local refineries accounting for 43%,mainly composed of high sulfur coke,accounting for more than 80%.In 2023,China imported 16.02 million tons of petroleum coke and exported only 190 thousand tons,with a net import volume of 15.83 million tons.The apparent consumption of petroleum coke in China reached 45.16 million tons.Although the overall price of petroleum coke in China is on the rise,the price of petroleum coke in China plummeted in 2023 compared to the previous year.It is expected that China's domestic production of petroleum coke in 2024 will reach 31.5 million tons,with a net import volume of 14 million tons,a decrease of 2 million tons in inventory,and an apparent consumption volume of 4.75 million tons.Petroleum coke,as one of the characteristic refining products of"reducing oil and increasing specialty",has limited impact on regulating the domestic refined oil market.It is suggested that production enterprises should take active action to expand their customers'scope related to negative electrode material together with dynamic demand in the Chinese market,and flexibly adjust their production and sales strategies according to their quantity and quality needs.

罗艳托;陆彬;邓钰暄;杨济宁

中国石油规划总院中国石油广东销售分公司中国石油大学(北京)

石油焦产量消费量供需进出口价格发展趋势

petroleum cokeproductionconsumptionsupply and demandimport and exportpricedevelopment trends

《国际石油经济》 2024 (003)

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