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2023年国内外天然气市场回顾与2024年展望OACHSSCDCSTPCD

China's natural gas markets review in 2023 and outlook for 2024

中文摘要英文摘要

2023年,全球天然气消费量为3.96万亿立方米,产量达4.28万亿立方米,供需基本面趋于宽松;国际气价高位回落,供应链扰动风险不断;全球天然气贸易格局持续深度调整,俄罗斯出口欧洲的管道气持续大幅下降,欧洲LNG进口量高位回落,亚洲LNG进口量恢复增长.2023年,中国天然气消费量为3917亿立方米,增量242亿立方米,同比增长6.6%.天然气产量为2353亿立方米,同比增长5.7%,连续7年增产超100亿立方米.天然气进口量为1656亿立方米,增速为9.5%;对外依存度为42.3%,较上年上涨1.1个百分点.中国天然气基础设施建设稳步推进,天然气价格市场化改革持续进行.2024年,预计全球天然气市场延续脆弱平衡态势,市场走势不确定性因素增多,国际气价波动更加频繁;中国天然气市场持续向好,天然气需求维持较快增长,国产天然气稳步上产,有望再超百亿立方米,进口气较快增长.

Global natural gas consumption was 3.96 trillion cubic meters,and production reached 4.28 trillion cubic meters in 2023 with quite loose supply and demand fundamentals.International gas prices fell from the high level and the risk from supply chain disturbance.The global natural gas trade pattern continued to adjust deeply,Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe continued to decline sharply,European LNG imports continued to fall from the high,and Asian LNG imports continued to recover.China's natural gas consumption was 391.7 billion cubic meters,an increment of 24.2 billion cubic meters,increasing by 6.6%year-on-year.Natural gas production was 235.3 billion cubic meters,rose by 5.7%year-on-year,an increment of more than 10 billion cubic meters for seven consecutive years.Natural gas imports were 165.6 billion cubic meters,with a growth rate of 9.5%and foreign dependence of 42.3%,up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year.China's natural gas infrastructure construction and market-oriented reform of natural gas prices have advanced steadily.In 2024,the global natural gas market is expected to keep the fragile balance situation with more market uncertainties and more frequent international gas price fluctuations.China's natural gas market is expected to go better,natural gas demand is expected to grow faster,domestic natural gas production is expected to exceed 10 billion cubic meters again,and the imported gas is expected to increase with a faster rate.

段兆芳;张晓宇;吴珉颉;崔子健;段天宇

中国石油集团经济技术研究院

全球天然气中国天然气消费产量贸易国际气价基础设施

global natural gasChina's natural gasconsumptionproductiontradeinternational gas priceinfrastructure

《国际石油经济》 2024 (003)

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