热带气象学报2024，Vol.40Issue(1)：11-22,12.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.002
广东"18.8"季风槽极端降水事件对流尺度集合预报分析
Analysis of Storm-scale Ensemble Forecasts for an Extreme Rainfall Event Associated with a Monsoon Trough on 30 August 2018 in Guangdong
摘要
Abstract
On 30 August 2018,an extreme rainfall event occurred in Guangdong Province with a record-breaking 24 h precipitation of 1056.7 mm.Operational forecasts from the ECMWF,JMA and CMA-GD greatly underestimated the precipitation amount.In this study,a storm-scale ensemble forecast system(SSEF)at 4 km grid spacing produced by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau was used to study this extreme event.The SSEF produced a high probability of occurrence for this rainfall event.The maximum ensemble probability of precipitation exceeding 150 mm day-1 was over 80%.The predicted maximum probability-matched mean rain rate was 348.7 mm day-1,and the predicted ensemble mean heavy rainfall center matched the observation well.To understand the main causes of forecast biases,the present study also analyzed the members of relatively good and bad performance in predicting the location of heavy rainfall.Close examination showed that the surface mesoscale convergence line predicted by the good member was located on the south side of the Lianhua Mountains.It moved slowly and persisted for a long time due to terrain blocking,causing heavy rainfall near the mountains.In contrast,the surface convergence line of the bad member was located north of the Lianhua Mountains.Without terrain blocking,the precipitation system moved towards the northeast,resulting in the mislocation of the forecasted heavy rainfall center.关键词
季风槽/极端降水/集合预报/地面辐合线Key words
monsoon trough/extreme rainfall/ensemble forecasts/surface convergence line分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈训来,朱科锋,王德立,陈元昭,王蕊,杨楠,张华龙..广东"18.8"季风槽极端降水事件对流尺度集合预报分析[J].热带气象学报,2024,40(1):11-22,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划政府间/港澳台重点专项项目(2019YFE0110100) （2019YFE0110100）
国家自然科学基金项目(41975124) （41975124）
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019081) （CMAYBY2019081）
广东省气象局科技创新团队项目(GRMCTD202104) （GRMCTD202104）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J002) （CXFZ2022J002）
深圳市深港澳科技计划项目(C类)(SGDX20210823103537035) （C类）
深圳市基础研究专项重点项目(JCYJ20200109113014456、JCYJ20210324120208022)共同资助 （JCYJ20200109113014456、JCYJ20210324120208022）
