气象2024，Vol.50Issue(3)：357-369,13.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.050301
基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究
A Hybrid Downscaling Scheme for Predicting Summer Precipitation in Eastern Part of Northwest China Based on Indian Ocean SST
摘要
Abstract
By using the prediction products of the Beijing Climate Centre Second-Generation Climate Prediction Model System(BCC-CPSv2)and a hybrid downscaling method as well as the Indian Ocean SST signals,this paper establishes a summer precipitation prediction model for eastern part of Northwest China.Rela-tive to BCC-CPSv2 model,the prediction skill of this model is significantly improved for the summer pre-cipitation in eastern part of Northwest China from 1991 to 2017.The spatial correlation coefficient increa-ses from 0.42 to 0.75,and the root mean square error decreases obviously,down most by 80％.The mod-el has better prediction ability for the spatial distribution pattern of precipitation anomaly percentage,such as for the distributions of the summer precipitation anomaly percentages in 1987 and 2010.By grasping the spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological variables,this prediction method can correct the pre-diction errors of dynamic model products and provide scientific basis and technical support for summer pre-cipitation prediction in eastern part of Northwest China,so it is expected to have a good application pros-pect.关键词
印度洋海温/西北地区东部/夏季降水/组合降尺度/预测模型Key words
Indian Ocean SST/eastern part of Northwest China/summer precipitation/hybrid downscal-ing/prediction model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
朱晓炜,李清泉,孙银川,王璠,王岱,高睿娜,刘颖..基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究[J].气象,2024,50(3):357-369,13.基金项目
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0208)、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100304)、国家自然科学基金重大项目(41790471)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(2016YFA0602200)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J024)、中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室指令性项目(CAMP-201905)、宁夏重点研发计划(2022CMG03058、2022BEG02020)和宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03673)共同资助 （2019QZKK0208）
