气象2024，Vol.50Issue(3)：377-386,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.013001
2023年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析
Overview of Climate Predicition for the Summer 2023 in China and Its Precursors
摘要
Abstract
In the summer of 2023,China experienced a climate of higher temperature and less precipitation.Both the droughts and the floods showed remarkable spatial differences.Although the numbers of ty-phoons generated and landing in summer were both less than normal,the typhoons that formed were ex-tremely destructive.In terms of temperature,persistent heat waves were the most prominent in North China and Northwest China since 1961,but the intensities of high temperature and drought were signifi-cantly weaker than those in the summer of 2022 across the Yangtze River Basin.The prediction effect has shown that the climate prediction successfully forecasted the characteristics of the rain belt in northern China,and made accurate prediction and early warning of the possible heavy floods in Songhua River Ba-sin,Nenjiang River Basin and Haihe River Basin.The forecasted number,main track and affected area of tropical cyclones in summer were also consistent with the observation.Prediction skills of mean tempera-tures in most parts of China are higher than normal,especially the heat wave intensity in the Yangtze River Basin in 2023.The primary error of precipitation forecast in the rainy season mainly occurred in South Chi-na,and the extreme high temperature processes were underestimated for North China and Huanghuai Re-gion.In addition,the precursors and their forecasting performance in summer 2023 are also reviewed and diagnosed.The results indicate that both the interdecadal and interannual variations of external forcing had good indicative significances for the prediction of rain belt in northern China.However,almost all the pre-cursors gave consistent wrong information about the precipitation in South China,which was the main rea-son for the failure of precipitation forecast in South China.关键词
夏季降水/高温热浪/热带气旋/先兆信号Key words
summer precipitation/heat wave/tropical cyclone/precursor分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
支蓉,高辉,孙冷..2023年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析[J].气象,2024,50(3):377-386,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130610)、国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502300)和国家自然科学基金面上项目(41975088)共同资助 （42130610）
