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COP28全球盘点成果解读及全球气候治理形势展望OA北大核心CSTPCD

The analysis of COP28 Global Stocktake outcome and global climate governance prospects

中文摘要英文摘要

《联合国气候变化框架公约》第28次缔约方会议(COP28)完成了《巴黎协定》下首次全球盘点,就多项议题达成一揽子名为"阿联酋共识"的成果.全球盘点成果的达成在机制上维护了《巴黎协定》的有效性,成果文件凸显了全球以1.5℃为温控目标强化减排行动力度的紧迫性,构建了全球适应目标框架,建立了损失与损害基金,高度关注气候资金支持缺口问题,并澄清了气候资金的概念关系.中国在元首外交、气候治理理念、谈判磋商方案等方面为全球盘点成果的达成作出了重要贡献.展望首次全球盘点后的全球气候多边形势,全球气候治理格局的多渠道化、多领域化、目标细化趋势显现,地缘政治加剧绿色贸易壁垒,发展中国家立场日渐碎片化,各国将在《巴黎协定》下以"自主贡献+"的模式开展气候行动,并不断按照新的要求更新和提高自主贡献.建议中国强化统筹国际国内两个大局,顺应全球绿色发展大势,积极完成各项履约任务并强化气候变化相关研究支撑和能力建设,提前统筹谋划COP29工作方案.

The 28th Conference of the Parties(COP28)to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)has completed the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement,and has reached a package of key decisions dubbed the United Arab Emirates(UAE)Consensus.The Global Stocktake outcome upholds the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement mechanism,highlights the urgency of strengthening global mitigation actions with the 1.5℃ temperature target,decides the framework for the global goal on adaptation,establishes loss and damage fund,emphasizes the issue of climate finance support gap,and clarifies the concept of climate finance.China has made important contributions to the achievement of the Global Stocktake outcome in terms of leadership diplomacy,climate governance concepts and climate change negotiations.The global climate multilateral process has shown following trends with the first Global Stocktake.The global climate governance has gradually become multi-channel,multi-disciplinary and target-oriented.Geopolitics has exacerbated green trade barriers.Developing countries'positions are increasingly fragmented.Countries will take climate action in the mode of"NDC+"under the Paris Agreement,and continuously update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)in accordance with new requirements.It is recommended that China need further take into account both the domestic and international imperatives,grasp the trend of global green development,actively fulfill our obligations under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement,strengthen the climate change-related research and capacity building,and make holistic planning and coordination for COP29 in advance.

樊星;李路;高翔;陈志华

国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035

气候变化《巴黎协定》全球盘点全球气候治理气候谈判

Climate changeParis Agreement Global StocktakeGlobal climate governanceClimate negotiation

《气候变化研究进展》 2024 (002)

253-260 / 8

国家社科基金重点项目(21AZD123)

10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.008

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