协调公平与效率的"四水四定"研究Ⅱ:应用OA北大核心CSTPCD

Drought and water shortage are the basic water conditions in Ningxia,and water-based development is the only way for Ningxia's high-quality development.Aiming at the water resources conditions and socio-economic characteristics of Ningxia,the objective function and classification constraints are established according to the re-quirements of"water dominates development"multi-objective optimization model.The feasible range of development space and water use efficiency is obtained by analyzing the coordination relationship between water and"human,industry,land,and urban",or"Four Determinations".The rigid guarantee demand is defined based on the development strategy.Following the principle of"ensuring rigid demand,efficiency driving and regional bal-ance",the analysis of the"water dominates development"scheme in the whole region is carried out based on coun-ty-level units,and the scale control objectives and water allocation scheme of"Four Determinations"are obtained.The results show that under the constraints of total water use of 7.327 billion m3 and water consumption of 4.15 billion m3 in the whole region,the"Four Determinations"scale that meets the overall well-off level is 7.5 million people,548.1 billion yuan GDP,0.847 million hm2 irrigation area and 791 km2 built-up area.The comprehensive evaluation shows that the"water dominates development"scheme meets the requirements of high quality,and has higher regional balance and water fairness than the current situation.The relationship between objectives of efficiency and equity is an-alyzed based on scenarios with different preferences,and the results show the significant impacts of settings of objec-tives and restraints,hence the comprehensive evaluation of the scenarios is necessary.By comparing the current situa-tion with the objectives of the"water dominates development"plan,the control countermeasures to guide the layout of regional economic and social development are proposed,which could be referential for relevant decision-making.