水利学报2024，Vol.55Issue(3)：313-324,12.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230329
1956-2022年鄱阳湖枯水情势演变及驱动机制分析
Analysis on the evolution and driving mechanism of low flow regime from 1956 to 2022 in Poyang Lake,China
摘要
Abstract
Changes in the low flow regime of Poyang Lake will greatly affect the security and stability of regional water resources,water environment and water ecology.The analysis of the causes of extreme hydrological events in Poyang Lake and the early warning of disasters under complex conditions are currently difficult problems that need to be broken through.This paper,based on the analysis of the hydrological process of annual water replenishment and water withdrawal in the lake area,explores the evolution law and driving mechanism of the low flow regime in the lake area by using the methods such as the staging analysis of"river-lake relationship".The results show that:(1)during the post-Three Gorges period,the dry regime in the lake area was significantly intensified,the annual minimum water level at Xingzi station dropped by 5.7％on average,and the low water intensity and low water days increased by 36.9％and 26.6％on average,respectively;(2)in the single factor analysis,the number of low-water days in the lake area is more affected by the flow conditions of the Yangtze River than the low-water intensity and minimum water level;in the multi-factor analysis,six explanatory factors comprehensively explained the evo-lution of the three above-mentioned low flow variables in the lake area,and the R2 values obtained by the three re-gression models were 0.83,0.83,and 0.70,respectively;(3)contribution analysis shows that the overall aggra-vation of the dry in the past 20 years is mainly due to the comprehensive impact of changes in the Yangtze River wa-ter flow conditions;taking the decrease in the annual minimum water level in the lake area as an example,the var-iation in the water level and flow relationship of rivers and lakes contributes 138.0％,Hankou runoff reduction con-tributes 8.4％,and Hankou runoff increase(mitigation)during the replenishment period of the Three Gorges Reser-voir contributes-34.2％.This study will provide a reference for the decoupling of the driving mechanism of the low flow regime in Poyang Lake and the study of drought early warning.关键词
鄱阳湖/枯水/干旱/三峡水库/贡献分析Key words
Poyang Lake/low flow/drought/Three Gorges Reservoir/contribution analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
熊斌,卓云强,许崇育,熊立华,陈泽强,田逸飞..1956-2022年鄱阳湖枯水情势演变及驱动机制分析[J].水利学报,2024,55(3):313-324,12.基金项目
江西省自然科学基金项目(20212BAB214066) （20212BAB214066）
国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心开放基金项目(2021KFJJ02) （2021KFJJ02）
