水科学进展2024，Vol.35Issue(2)：220-231,12.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2024.02.004
人口特征对中国经济社会需水影响及峰值预测
Impact of demographic characteristics on China's economic and social water demand,with peak projections
摘要
Abstract
The size and distribution of the population are crucial factors determining the demand for water resources.Considering the significant decline in total population growth,the evolution of China's economic and social water demand is directly related to macro-level decision-making in water resource management.By analyzing the demographic composition of China's population in terms of urban-rural distribution and age distribution,this paper clarifies the impacts of these factors on economic and social water demand.It further establishes a water demand change curve based on these demographic characteristics,which is used to predict the evolution of economic and social water demand trends and peak projections.The research findings indicate that the peak projection of China's economic and social water demand may occur in 2042,reaching an estimated scale of 730 billion cubic meters;before 2050,the total water demand in urban areas will continue to rise,whereas the peak projection in rural areas will likely occur around 2030.The scale of economic and social water demand is a boundary condition determining the characteristics of regional water usage.As China's economic and social water demand is yet to reach an inflection point,and as the international trade environment is becoming more volatile,future efforts to ensure water supply security in China should maintain a certain degree of flexibility and resilience.关键词
需水峰值/人口负增长/城乡结构/年龄结构/需水变化曲线Key words
peak water demand/population negative growth/urban and rural structure/age structure/water demand curve分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
何国华,赵勇,王浩,何凡,李海红,秦长海,朱翰林..人口特征对中国经济社会需水影响及峰值预测[J].水科学进展,2024,35(2):220-231,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3200204) （2021YFC3200204）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52109042) The study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFC3200204)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52109042). （52109042）
