"双循环"促进利用外资"稳中提质"的效应评估OACHSSCD

In recent years,China's utilization of FDI,despite the challenges it has faced,has managed to"buck the trend"of the global decline in outward FDI,the underlying logic of which is that the"dual circulation"can create a new advantage in attracting FDI.However,there are few direct analyses in the existing literature on the link between the new development pattern of the dual circulation and the"stable improvement"in the quality of FDI.Among the many factors affecting FDI,even the studies conducted from the perspective of the dual-circulation mainly focus on qualitative discussions or certain specific factors in the domestic and international macro-circulation,failing to focus on the possible impact of the dual-circulation itself on China's"steady improvement of the quality of utilization of FDI". This paper,by adopting the Asian Development Bank(ADB),the University of International Business and Economics Global Value Chain Database(UIBE GVC),and the China Carbon Accounting Databases(CCADs),etc.,based on Ni Hongfu et al.(2016)'s method of measuring the length of domestic and international production segmentation,quantitatively measures the"double cycle"and examines the effect of"dual circulation"on the"quality"and"quantity"of foreign investment utilization.The empirical study finds that the domestic and international dual circulation and their interaction play a significant role in promoting the"quality"and"quantity"of FDI utilization.Specifically:the improvement of industrial supporting capacity and demand expansion under the scale advantage of the local market,as well as the increase in the degree of openness,are the key mechanisms for the dual circulation to promote the utilization of FDI"steadily improving quality";"The quality of the system plays a significant positive regulatory role in the promotion of"steady improvement in the quality"of foreign capital utilization,that is,the more perfect the quality of the system,the more conducive to the dual circulation promoting the utilization of foreign capital;the results of the heterogeneity test show that the dual circulation has a more significant effect on the promotion of the tertiary industry,and due to the existence of market segmentation between regions,the dual circulation has a more significant effect on the promotion of the tertiary industry than the central and western inland regions.At the same time,due to the existence of inter-regional market segmentation,the domestic and international dual circulation has a more significant effect on the"quality"and"quantity"of foreign capital utilization in the eastern coastal region than inland areas in the central and western regions. The possible marginal contributions of this paper include:in terms of research perspective,different from the factors influencing the utilization of FDI,including high-quality utilization of FDI,which has been the concern of the existing research literature,this paper focuses on expanding the analysis of the factors influencing the utilization of FDI to improve the quality in a stable manner from the perspective of the domestic and international dual circulation;In terms of research content,regarding the possible impact of the dual circulation on the utilization of foreign investment"steadily improving quality",it not only analyses its possible real effects from the theoretical and empirical levels,but also tries to reveal the possible mechanism of the above impacts;in terms of measurement methods and data usage,on the one hand,based on the input-output table,this paper uses the consumption coefficient matrix,Leontief inverse matrix,value-added matrix,etc.to measure the length of the domestic and international production splits,which is an innovative way to quantitatively measure the dual-circulation;on the other hand,in contrast to the previous studies of the dual-circulation that stayed on the panel data at the national level,the object of this paper's research is further refined to the provincial and industry levels to carry out a more detailed study. The research in this paper not only helps to expand and deepen the understanding of the influencing factors of China's utilization of FDI,but also provides policy insights for government departments on how to continuously improve the supporting capacity of the industries that utilize FDI and cultivate new advantages in attracting and gathering FDI under the new situation from the specific perspective of the new development pattern of the dual circulation.