气象学报2024，Vol.82Issue(2)：247-256,10.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2024.20230085
江苏寒潮天气过程风险预评估方法研究
Methodology in pre-assessment of the cold surge induced risks in Jiangsu province of China
摘要
Abstract
Based on daily minimum temperature data collected at 70 national weather stations and reconstructed data collected at more than 1300 regional automatic stations during the same period from 1961 to 2020 in Jiangsu province,four variables related to cold waves are selected as the meteorological disaster causing factors of cold wave disasters.The weight of each disaster causing factor is determined by combining the information entropy weighting method and Delphi method.A disaster risk assessment model is established to produce a long-term series of disaster risk index,which is then used to determine the risk level by the percentile method.Based on intelligent grid temperature prediction data,the predicted disaster risk index for the cold wave process is calculated.A risk pre-assessment model for cold wave processes is then constructed by combining the exposure and vulnerability information of the disaster bearing body.The impact of early temperature on wheat growth is also considered to modify the wheat vulnerability index.The results are as follows:(1)The frequency of cold wave events in Jiangsu province generally has shown an upward trend in the last century and a downward trend in the 21 century,and the frequency of occurrence is significantly higher in northern Jiangsu than in southern Jiangsu.The intensities of meteorological disaster causing factors are generally stronger in the west than in the east,and stronger in the north than in the south.(2)Based on the case study of the cold wave event from 28 November to 3 December 2022,it is found that the results of the risk pre-assessment basically are consistent with actual disaster situation.关键词
寒潮过程/气象致灾因子/智能网格预报/危险性预估/风险预估Key words
Cold wave process/Meteorological disaster causing factor/Intelligent grid prediction data/Hazard pre-assessment/Risk pre-assessment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
顾荣直,田心如,禹梁玉,陈小宇,李泽宇..江苏寒潮天气过程风险预评估方法研究[J].气象学报,2024,82(2):247-256,10.基金项目
中国气象局决策气象服务专项(CZX2022003)、江苏省气象局科研基金(KM202301)、江苏省社会发展重大科技示范项目(BE2023766). （CZX2022003）
