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堰塞湖风险处置研究现状与展望OA北大核心CSTPCD

Research status and prospects on risk disposal of barrier lakes

中文摘要英文摘要

科学认知堰塞湖基本特征、高效评估堰塞湖风险以及提升堰塞湖应急处置技术是缓和堰塞湖威胁和降低堰塞湖灾损的关键.从堰塞湖分布、成因、蓄水库容、生命周期以及堰塞湖灾害特点等方面系统分析了堰塞湖基本特征,从定性、定量以及灾害链角度系统总结了堰塞湖危险性评估方法,并结合堰塞湖溃决机理系统分析当前堰塞湖溃决应急监测困境、引流槽除险技术水平和疏通开挖机械设备现状.基于当前研究的局限性,凝炼堰塞湖应急处置研究未来应重点关注的5 个问题:① 堰塞体堆积形态分区机制;② 强非恒定流输沙理论;③ 大尺度堰塞湖溃决模型试验;④ 堰塞湖应急处置专用机械设备研制;⑤ 堰塞湖溃决洪峰动态追踪.研究成果可为高风险堰塞湖风险评估、应急处置及区域防灾减灾规划提供有益参考.

Scientifically understanding essential feature,efficiently assessing risk level and upgrading emergency disposal level are the key to alleviating the threat and the lose of barrier lakes.The essential features of barrier lakes were introduced from the aspects of distribution,formation cause,reservoir capacity,life cycle and the disaster characteristics.Moreover,the risk assessment methods were systematically summarized from qualitative assessment,quantitative assessment and disaster chain perspectives.Based on the systematic analysis of outburst mechanism,this paper emphatically introduced the engineering problems about the e-mergency monitoring,the discharge spillway technology and the specialized excavation equipment about the barrier lakes.Com-bined with the limitations of the current research,five key issues that should be focused on in the study of emergency disposal of barrier lakes were prospected:① study on partitioned accumulation mechanism of landslide body;② theory on strong unsteady sand transport;③large scale physical model of barrier lakes;④research on special equipment of barrier lakes emergency dispos-al;⑤ dynamic tracking on outburst flood peak.These results can provide reasonable references for risk assessment,emergency re-sponse,regional disaster prevention and reduction planning of high-risk barrier lakes.

周招;杨启贵;蔡耀军;卢建华;陈朝旭;张文传

长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉 430010||国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心,湖北 武汉 430010长江设计集团有限公司,湖北武汉 430010中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北 武汉 430010

水利科学

堰塞湖溃决洪峰风险评估应急处置实时监测

barrier lakeoutburst flood peakrisk assessmentemergency disposalreal-time monitoring

《人民长江》 2024 (004)

9-18 / 10

国家自然科学基金长江联合基金项目(U2340232);长江设计公司自主创新基金项目(CX2021Z61);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005404)

10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.04.002

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