肿瘤防治研究2024，Vol.51Issue(4)：271-277,7.DOI:10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2024.23.1172
1990-2019年中美两国归因于高BMI的食管癌疾病负担和死亡预测分析
Disease Burden of Esophageal Cancer Attributable to High BMI and Death Prediction in China and the United States,1990-2019
贺嘉慧 1胡钦勇1
作者信息
- 1. 430060 武汉,武汉大学人民医院肿瘤中心
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high body mass index(BMI)in the Chinese and United States populations from 1990 to 2019 and predict deaths over the next 10 years.Methods This study used Global Burden of Disease 2019 data to obtain mortality and disability-adjusted life-year(DALY)data by year,gender,and age for the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China and the United States from 1990 to 2019.Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to analyze long-term trends.Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict age-standardized mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in 2020-2030.Results From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized mortality rate for esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China increased from 1.44/105 to 1.80/105 and the age-standardized DALY rate increased from 34.17/105 to 40.79/105.From the perspective of gender,the number of deaths,DALYs,and the corresponding age-standardized rate of males in China and the United States increased from 1990 to 2019.The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of Chinese women showed a downward trend,decreasing by 21.36/105 and 29.71/105,respectively.Joinpoint analysis results revealed that the average annual percentage changes(AAPCs)in mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in the total population and men in China from 1990 to 2019 increased by 0.78%(95%CI:0.71-0.84)and 1.52%(95%CI:1.44-1.60),respectively,and that in females decreased by 0.88%(95%CI:-0.96--0.80).AAPC in women in the United States rose at a slow rate of 0.07%(95%CI:0.02-0.09).The burden of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to high BMI is predicted to continue to rise in China and the United States in 2020-2030.Conclusion The disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI significantly increased in China from 1990 to 2019.The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by high BMI in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2030.关键词
食管癌/高体重指数/死亡率/伤残调整寿命年/疾病负担/Joinpoint回归分析Key words
Esophageal neoplasms/High body mass index/Mortality/Disability-adjusted life years/Burden of illness/Joinpoint regression analysis分类
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贺嘉慧,胡钦勇..1990-2019年中美两国归因于高BMI的食管癌疾病负担和死亡预测分析[J].肿瘤防治研究,2024,51(4):271-277,7.
