未来30年中国耕地和高标准农田分布的省级预测OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD
The Patterns of Cultivated Land and Well-facilitated Farmland in China at the Provincial Level in the Next 30 Years
科学预测中国未来耕地和高标准农田分布对于保障我国粮食安全和提高耕地质量具有重要意义.该研究假设未来各省份耕地和高标准农田占全国总面积比例不变,根据各省份耕地和高标准农田实际面积、未来全国耕地及各省份高标准农田规划面积等数据,基于最小二乘法的二次多项式拟合预测未来 30a全国及各省份耕地面积和高标准农田面积,进而预测未来各省份耕地面积保有率和高标准农田占耕地比例.结果表明:(1)到 2050年,我国耕地面积稳定在1.20×108 hm2,耕地面积保有率稳定在100%,高标准农田面积达到1.03×108 hm2,高标准农田占耕地比例从 2020 年的 43.59%增长到 2050 年的 85.89%,增长近一倍.(2)七大区域中,黄淮海区、长江中下游区、东南区的高标准农田占耕地比例较高,在2020 年均已达到70%以上,东北区、西北区、青藏区、西南区高标准农田占耕地比例则处于 40%～60%之间.到 2050 年,受耕地比例稳定中略有下降的趋势影响,黄淮海区、长江中下游区、东南区、青藏区高标准农田占耕地比例均达 90%以上,东北区、西北区、西南区则处于 70%～90%之间.(3)从各省份来看,江西省、浙江省、福建省、广东省等南方省份的高标准农田建设比例较高,而内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省、辽宁省、吉林省、山东省等北方省份的耕地面积保有率较高.研究得到的耕地面积及其保有率、高标准农田面积及其占耕地比例等指标的分省份预测值可以为未来相关部门制定国土空间规划等提供科学依据,也可以为未来耕地布局和农田利用等研究提供分省份的总量参考.
Accurate prediction the future patterns of cultivated land and well-facilitated farmland in China is crucial for ensuring food security and improving the quality of cultivated land.In this study,to ensure the stable grain contributions of each province,we assume that the area proportions of cultivated land and well-facilitated farmland for each province in China will remain unchanged in the future.Based on the data of the current areas of cultivated land and well-facilitated farmland in each province,as well as predictions of the national cultivated land area in 2030 and 2050,the national well-facilitated farmland area in 2025,2030,and 2050,and well-facilitated farmland area in 2025 and 2030 at the provincial level,we used quadratic polynomial fitting by least square method to predict the areas of cultivated land and well-facilita-ted farmland at both levels from 2025 to 2050.Then,we calculated the indices of the retention rate of cultivated land area and the area proportion of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land at the provincial level in the future.The results indi-cate that the retention rate of cultivated land area in China will remain stable at 100%in 2050,with the total cultivated land area keeping at 1.20×108 hm2.In 2050,the area of well-facilitated farmland in China will be 1.03×108 hm2,which will reach nearly a doubled growth,and the area proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land will rise from 43.59%in 2020 to 85.89%in 2050.In the seven sub-regions of China,all of the retention rate of cultivated land area will be stable at 100%in 2050.Affected by the trends from stable to slightly declining in the cultivated land proportions,the area proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land will be more than 90%in the regions of Huang-Huai-Hai,the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River,the Southeast,and the Qinghai-Tibet in 2050,and the proportions will range from 70%to 90%in the Northeast,the Northwest,and the Southwest regions in the same year.At the provincial level,retention rate of cultivated land area will be higher in northern China such as the Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Lia-oning,Jilin,and Shandong,while area proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated land will exhibit higher in southern provinces such as Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guangdong.Our prediction can provide a scientific basis for fu-ture planning in national spatial planning,and can also support the studies on layout of cultivated land and farmland use at the provincial level.
李俊;石晓丽;史文娇;王绍强
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101||河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室/河北师范大学地理科学学院,河北 石家庄 050024||河北省环境变化遥感识别技术创新中心/河北师范大学地理计算与规划研究中心,河北 石家庄 050024河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室/河北师范大学地理科学学院,河北 石家庄 050024||河北省环境变化遥感识别技术创新中心/河北师范大学地理计算与规划研究中心,河北 石家庄 050024中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101||中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
经济学
中国耕地保护高标准农田占耕地比例耕地面积保有率趋势预测
Chinacultivated land protectionarea proportions of well-facilitated farmland to cultivated landretention rate of cultivated land areatrend prediction
《生态与农村环境学报》 2024 (004)
461-468 / 8
国家重点研发计划(2022YFB3903504);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金(72221002);河北省引进留学人员资助项目(C20230347);河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(ZD202412)
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