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普京总统第五任期的俄罗斯对外政策趋向OA北大核心CHSSCDCSSCI

Russia's Foreign Policy Trends during President Putin's Fifth Term

中文摘要英文摘要

2024年,在俄乌冲突持续的背景下,俄罗斯迎来总统大选,普京再一次以较高的支持率胜选.普京胜选的主要因素包括:中央垂直管理的加强、制度建设和网络媒体管控,经济在止跌企稳中复苏,对外政策着重维护俄罗斯大国强国地位,民意基础坚实以及反对派势弱等.在新任期内,普京面临俄乌冲突持续、周边形势的恶化、统筹国家安全与经济发展等挑战,"危机应对"与"因势利导"成为俄罗斯对外政策的主要趋向.在可预见的政策时段,俄罗斯的对外政策及其团队和人员将保持稳定发展的特征.普京将会延续务实灵活的外交风格:对美国、北约和欧洲国家采取不同态度,缓和孤立局面;面对独联体国家对外部势力的逢迎采取不同对策,力求守住防线;因势利导,加速战略"转向",发展与亚太国家及"全球南方"国家的关系;深化与中国的全面战略协作.困境下,俄罗斯重新布局对外政策,同时对外政策手段将具有更加多元化的体现.

In 2024,against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict,Russia held its presiden-tial election,and Vladimir Putin once again emerged victorious with high approval ratings.The main factors of contributing to Putin's victory consist of that amid overall stability,the Russian government strengthens central vertical management,institutional development,and control over online media,the economy has been showing signs of recovery after a period of stabilization,Russia maintains its status as a major and powerful country in foreign policy,a solid popular base,and a weak opposition.In his new term,Putin faces the challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,deteriorating regional conditions,and the need to balance national security with economic development.Crisis management and adapting to the situation have become the main themes of Russia's current foreign policy.In the foreseeable policy period,Russia's foreign policy will maintain stability and development in terms of teams and personnel.Putin will continue his pragmatic and flexible approach by adopting different attitudes towards the United States,NATO,and European countries to ease the isolation situation,employing different strategies in response to external in-fluences on the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS)countries to safeguard Russia's interests,stra-tegically shifting its focus towards the East,accelerating the development of relations with Asia-Pacific countries and the Global South and placing emphasis on deepening comprehensive strategic cooperation with China.Russia's identity and foreign policy in times of adversity will have diverse and noteworthy manifesta-tions.

张建

外交学院,北京 100037

政治法律

普京新任期2024年俄罗斯总统大选对外政策俄乌冲突中俄关系

Putin's new termRussian 2024 presidential electionforeign policyRussia-Ukraine con-flictChina-Russia relations

《太平洋学报》 2024 (003)

16-33 / 18

本文系北京市社会科学基金项目"后疫情时代的中俄关系及国际格局演变趋向"(21ZGC006)阶段性成果.

10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2024.03.002

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