应对极端暴雨洪水与提升防洪安全韧性研究OA
Research on coping with extreme rainstorm flood and enhancing flood safety resilience——taking the Taihu basin as an example
为应对类似于河南省郑州市"7·20"特大暴雨可能带来的灾害风险,保障极端暴雨条件下的太湖流域防洪安全,提升流域防洪韧性,将郑州"7·20"特大暴雨移植到太湖流域,采用水文水动力学耦合模型推演现状骨干防洪工程体系(太浦河、望虞河、江南运河、沿长江、沿杭州湾等)3种洪水调度条件下,太湖流域、水利分区与城市代表站应对极端暴雨洪水的响应情况.研究表明:将暴雨中心移植至太湖流域武澄锡虞区,3天累计降雨量达398.0 mm;现状调度下北部分区代表站最高水位分别较有记录以来的历史最高水位偏高0.15～0.88 m,外圈全力排水调度下北部分区水位较历史最高水位偏高0.07～0.76 m,内外圈全力排水调度下北部分区水位较历史最高水位偏高0.03～0.28 m,无锡(大)站水位峰值将会降至5.78 m,低于江南运河无锡段现状堤顶高程.研究成果有助于提升流域、区域与城市应对超标准暴雨洪水的应急处置能力,为强化太湖流域洪涝灾害风险感知、预报预警、风险研判、调度决策、响应联动等关键环节提供技术支撑和科学依据.
In order to cope with the flood risk similar to the"7·20"mega-rainstorm in Zhengzhou,and to ensure the flood control safety and enhance the flood protection resilience under the conditions of extreme rainfall over the Taihu basin,the Zhengzhou's"7·20"mega-rainstorm was transposed to the Taihu basin,the coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system was adopted to deduce the representative station water stage response to extreme rainstorm for the backbone flood control project system(such as the Taipu River,Wangyu River,Jiangnan Canal,hydraulic engineering along the Yangtze River and the Hangzhou Bay,etc.).Three flood scheduling conditions were formulated to assess the risk of extreme rainstorm and floods for the basin,region and city.The study showed that the rainstorm center was transplanted to Wuchengxiyu sub-region,and the cumulative rainfall in three days reached to 398.0mm.Under the current scheduling,the maximum water stage of the representative station of the northern sub-region was between 0.15m to 0.88m higher than the highest water stage in the history since the record was made.Under the full drainage scheduling for the outer circle,the maximum water stage of the representative station of the northern sub-region was between 0.07m to 0.76m higher than the highest water level in the history.Under the full drainage scheduling for the outer and inner circle,the maximum water stage of the representative station of the northern sub-region was between 0.03 m to 0.28 m higher than the highest water level in the history.The flood peak water stage in Wuxida station can be reduced to 5.78 m,which was lower than current top of the embankment elevation of the Wuxi section of the Jiangnan Canal.The results can improve the emergency response capability to cope with excessive rainstorm and flood,and provide key technical support and scientific decision-making basis for strengthening the risk perception,forecasting and early warning,risk judgment,scheduling decision-making,response linkage and other key links in the flood disaster of the Taihu Lake basin.
吴娟;钱傲然;林荷娟
太湖流域管理局水文局(信息中心),200434,上海
地球科学
太湖流域极端暴雨洪水预测水文水动力学耦合模型
Taihu basinextreme rainstormflood forecastcoupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system
《中国水利》 2024 (008)
25-32 / 8
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407900);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022043);水利部水利青年拔尖人才发展基金(水基字[2022]7号).
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