基于PLUS模型的2030年滹沱河流域山区段生态承载力时空格局多情景预测OA北大核心CSTPCD

Measuring ecological carrying capacity is relevant to regional ecological security.In order to explore the spatial and temporal changes in the ecological carrying capacity in the mountainous section of the Hutuo River basin in recent years and the future,first,the ecological footprint model with improved vegetation net primary productivity was applied to measure and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological carrying capacity in the basin from 2015 to 2020.Second,the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological carrying capacity in the region in 2030 were predicted by the PLUS model with accuracy verification under three scenarios,including trend continuation,economic development,and ecological protection.The results show that:the overall pattern of ecological carrying capacity per unit area in the region from 2015 to 2030 did not change greatly,but the internal spatial differentiation was clear,and the overall ecological carrying capacity per unit area was high in the southeast and northwest regions,while it was low in the northeast and southwest regions.From 2015 to 2020,the total regional ecological carrying capacity increased from 1.078 0×106 to 1.079 6×106 bhm2,showing an upward trend.From 2020 to 2030,the total regional ecological carrying capacity was predicted to be 1.078 3×106 bhm2 under the trend continuation scenario,while it was predicted to be 1.078 2×106 bhm2 under the scenarios of economic development,showing a decreasing trend.This was mainly because of the transfer of pasture to arable land and the transfer of forest to construction area.The total ecological carrying capacity was predicted to increase under the scenario of ecological protection.This is mainly because of the transfer of arable land to forest and pasture.The total ecological carrying capacity of each land use type decreased in the order of:pasture,arable land,forest,construction area,and water area.The total ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was predicted to increase under the ecological protection scenario.The total ecological carrying capacity of arable land and construction land was predicted to increase under the economic development scenario.The total ecological carrying capacity of water area changed less under the different development scenarios.The ecological protection scenario was more conducive to the increase in ecological carrying capacity in the future,which is consistent with the future development direction of the region.The transformation of pasture to arable land and forest to construction areas should be strictly controlled.The regional ecological carrying capacity will be improved by the continuous implementation of the Grain for Green project and strengthening the ecological reclamation of regional abandoned mines in the future.This will achieve regional ecological security and sustainable development of economy,society,and ecology.